Levadiakos 0-1 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Panathinaikos at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Levadiakos and Panathinaikos meet at Stadio Levadias in Super League 1, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 3 January 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Levadiakos have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 2L across 7 games at Stadio Levadias this term (1.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Panathinaikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panathinaikos's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Panathinaikos are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Levadiakos 0W, Panathinaikos 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Panathinaikos winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Panathinaikos half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 47% versus Panathinaikos 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levadiakos 33% | Panathinaikos 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.78 xG and Panathinaikos 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.795 / defence 1.000 | Panathinaikos attack 1.277 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.029. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Panathinaikos have an above-average attack strength of 1.277 — the away xG of 1.31 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 15 Levadiakos games / 41 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 18% | Draw 36% | Panathinaikos 45%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 5.56 | Draw 2.78 | Panathinaikos 2.22. Panathinaikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Panathinaikos as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 57% | Panathinaikos 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Jan 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 18% | Draw 36% | Panathinaikos 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Levadiakos 0.78 / Panathinaikos 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.795 / def 1.000 | Panathinaikos attack 1.277 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Panathinaikos xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos kick off?
Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 15:00 on Tuesday 3 January 2023 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos?
Levadiakos 0 - 1 Panathinaikos.
Where is Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos part of?
Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 18% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 45% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Levadiakos and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Panathinaikos?
Record (1 meetings): Levadiakos 0W | Draws 0 | Panathinaikos 1W.
What form are Levadiakos and Panathinaikos in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Panathinaikos (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Levadiakos's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Panathinaikos's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. Flip it around — Panathinaikos's attack (1.28x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 15/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.3%), 0-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
18%
5.41
36%
2.77
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.10
1.31
Panathinaikos xG
5.41
18%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
5%
20.15
21%
4.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 16.1 | 10.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.6 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.31 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 15 outings, Levadiakos have picked up 0.73 PPG on a 2W 5D 8L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panathinaikos's form line: 12W 3D 0L from 15 games, 2.60 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Panathinaikos are the form team by 1.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Levadiakos.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Levadiakos have posted 1.33 PPG from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.73 PPG overall — Levadiakos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Panathinaikos have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 away games — 2.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Levadiakos are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.73 scored and 0.40 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
Panathinaikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 2W 5D 8L in their last 15 games (0.73 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 12W 3D 0L in their last 15 (2.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Panathinaikos away?
Panathinaikos's away record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.33 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 2.67 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Panathinaikos won 1-4 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Levadiakos
1
Draws
5
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Panathinaikos?
From 6 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 0, Panathinaikos have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Levadiakos 1-4 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 50%, Panathinaikos 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Levadiakos and 33% for Panathinaikos.
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos in 50%; Levadiakos have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 50% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Levadiakos's recent games and 33% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panathinaikos edge out Levadiakos 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Levadiakos 0-1 at Stadio Levadias, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 0.78 xG and Panathinaikos 1.31 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.80 / defence 1.00 against Panathinaikos attack 1.28 / defence 0.81, drawn from 15/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 18% | Draw 36% | Panathinaikos 45%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 33%, Panathinaikos 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.