Levadiakos 1-4 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Levadiakos and Panathinaikos meet at Levadia Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Levadiakos have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Levadia Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Panathinaikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panathinaikos's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Levadiakos, 2.00 for Panathinaikos — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Panathinaikos hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.2 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Panathinaikos have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Panathinaikos half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 60% versus Panathinaikos 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 58% | Panathinaikos 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.69 xG and Panathinaikos 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 1.403 / defence 0.939 | Panathinaikos attack 1.006 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.098. Levadiakos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.403 — their λ of 1.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 49 Levadiakos games / 49 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 52% | Draw 24% | Panathinaikos 23%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Panathinaikos 4.35. Levadiakos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levadiakos if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Levadiakos 50% | Panathinaikos 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Mar 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 52% | Draw 24% | Panathinaikos 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Levadiakos 1.69 / Panathinaikos 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 1.403 / def 0.939 | Panathinaikos attack 1.006 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Panathinaikos xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos kick off?
Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Levadia Stadium.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos?
Levadiakos 1 - 4 Panathinaikos.
Where is Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos part of?
Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 52% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Levadiakos and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Panathinaikos?
Record (5 meetings): Levadiakos 0W | Draws 1 | Panathinaikos 4W.
What form are Levadiakos and Panathinaikos in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Panathinaikos (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Levadiakos's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against Panathinaikos's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — Panathinaikos's attack (1.01x) against Levadiakos's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
52%
1.91
24%
4.12
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.72
1.04
Panathinaikos xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
4%
23.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.04 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, Levadiakos have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 24W 15D 16L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panathinaikos's form line: 29W 14D 12L from 55 games, 1.84 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Levadiakos against 1.84 for Panathinaikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Levadiakos have posted 1.67 PPG from 27 outings (13W 6D 8L).
On the road, Panathinaikos have gone 10W 8D 9L from 27 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.84 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panathinaikos's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Levadiakos are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.45 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
Panathinaikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 24W 15D 16L in their last 55 games (1.58 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 29W 14D 12L in their last 55 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Panathinaikos away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.67 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Panathinaikos have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Panathinaikos won 1-4 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Levadiakos
1
Draws
6
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Panathinaikos?
From 7 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 0, Panathinaikos have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Levadiakos 0-2 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 59%, Panathinaikos 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Levadiakos) and 44% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos in 33%; Panathinaikos in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 48% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Levadiakos's recent games and 44% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Panathinaikos run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Levadiakos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Levadiakos 1-4 at Levadia Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.69 xG and Panathinaikos 1.04 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Panathinaikos outscored their 1.04 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.40 / defence 0.94 against Panathinaikos attack 1.01 / defence 0.87, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 52% | Draw 24% | Panathinaikos 23%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Panathinaikos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 58%, Panathinaikos 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.58 PPG, Panathinaikos 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panathinaikos win broke the near-deadlock. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.