Levadiakos 1-1 OFI – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates OFI at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
OFI travel to Stadio Levadias to take on Levadiakos in Super League 1 (matchday 5). The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 September 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 4 matches, Levadiakos stand at 0W 2D 2L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings (25%). Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Across their last 10 games, OFI have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, OFI have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. OFI are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Levadiakos have won 1, OFI 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2023, ended Levadiakos 1–1 OFI — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Levadiakos trading profile (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
OFI trading profile (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 25% versus OFI 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 50% | OFI 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.92 xG and OFI 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.639 / defence 1.194 | OFI attack 0.996 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.281. Levadiakos's attack rating of 0.639 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. OFI's defence rating of 1.217 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Levadiakos's projected output up. Data: built from Levadiakos's last 4 games and OFI's last 30.
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 19% | Draw 33% | OFI 48%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 5.14 | Draw 3.06 | OFI 2.09. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, OFI are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Levadiakos 25% (last 4 games) | OFI 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 5 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Sunday 22 September 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 19% | Draw 33% | OFI 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Levadiakos 0.92 / OFI 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.639 / def 1.194 | OFI attack 0.996 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: OFI (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.52
OFI xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Levadiakos vs OFI FAQs
What time does Levadiakos vs OFI kick off?
Levadiakos vs OFI kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs OFI?
Levadiakos 1 - 1 OFI.
Where is Levadiakos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs OFI part of?
Levadiakos vs OFI is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 5) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 19% chance of winning, OFI a 48% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Levadiakos and OFI will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Levadiakos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (0.64) and OFI's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Levadiakos's last 4 games and OFI's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
19%
5.14
33%
3.06
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.45
1.52
OFI xG
5.14
19%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
4%
23.58
19%
5.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 13.2 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Levadiakos vs OFI Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.52 for OFI, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Levadiakos come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 2D 2L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L), a run that reads L-D-W-W across their last five.
OFI carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Levadiakos are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.75 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; OFI in 75%.
Last 4 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Early Season
OFI
Early Season
Levadiakos (Home) vs OFI (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Levadiakos
Early Season
OFI
Early Season
❓ Levadiakos vs OFI Form FAQs
What form are Levadiakos and OFI in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while OFI have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from November 2022. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 13 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Sep 2025, when Levadiakos won Levadiakos 4-0 OFI.
Levadiakos's record when hosting OFI specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Levadiakos
3
Draws
3
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Levadiakos vs OFI H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and OFI?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Levadiakos have won 3, OFI have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and OFI last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 May 2026: Levadiakos 3-2 OFI.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 25%, OFI 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Levadiakos and 75% for OFI. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Levadiakos vs OFI Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Levadiakos and OFI matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 75% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Levadiakos and OFI matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Levadiakos's matches and 75% of OFI's.
Do Levadiakos and OFI matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 100% of OFI's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levadiakos and OFI share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Levadias, Regular Season - 5, as Levadiakos and OFI drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 0.92 xG and OFI 1.52 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.64 / defence 1.19 against OFI attack 1.00 / defence 1.22, drawn from 4/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 19% | Draw 33% | OFI 48%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 50%, OFI 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
OFI's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, OFI arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.