Levadiakos vs Kalamata – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kalamata at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs Kalamata fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Levadiakos host Kalamata at Levadia Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levadiakos stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Levadiakos have posted 3W 3D 4L at Levadia Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Kalamata — All Games: 2W 1D 3L from 6 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.17 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Kalamata have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Kalamata have posted 1W 1D 1L from 3 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Levadiakos 0.80 PPG, Kalamata 1.17 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Levadiakos trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 17% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
Kalamata trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Levadiakos 0% | Kalamata 67%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levadiakos 0% | Kalamata 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.87 xG and Kalamata 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.589 / defence 1.076 | Kalamata attack 1.046 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 0.976. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.589 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 Levadiakos games / 6 Kalamata games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 25% | Draw 37% | Kalamata 37%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 4.00 | Draw 2.70 | Kalamata 2.70. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 25% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 40% | Kalamata 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Kalamata | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 25% | Draw 37% | Kalamata 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Levadiakos 0.87 / Kalamata 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.589 / def 1.076 | Kalamata attack 1.046 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.439 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Kalamata xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Kalamata kick off?
Levadiakos vs Kalamata is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Levadia Stadium.
Where is Levadiakos vs Kalamata being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Kalamata part of?
Levadiakos vs Kalamata is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Kalamata?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 25% chance of winning, Kalamata a 37% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Kalamata?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Levadiakos and Kalamata will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Kalamata have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Kalamata?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Levadiakos and Kalamata in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Kalamata (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (0.59) and Kalamata's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kalamata's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalamata Win
25%
3.94
37%
2.69
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
1.97
1.10
Kalamata xG
3.94
25%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
8%
11.82
16%
6.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 15.3 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Kalamata?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Kalamata expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.10 for Kalamata, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Kalamata?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Levadiakos's recent record stands at 0W 2D 4L from 6 games, a 0.33 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kalamata, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 3L across 6 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Kalamata, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kalamata by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Levadiakos heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Levadiakos have managed 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kalamata's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalamata come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Levadiakos are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Kalamata are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Kalamata in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Early Season
Kalamata
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Kalamata in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 0W 2D 4L in their last 6 games (0.33 PPG), while Kalamata have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Kalamata away?
Kalamata's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 0.33 PPG; Kalamata away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or Kalamata been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Kalamata in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Levadiakos tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Kalamata are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Levadiakos 0% BTTS, Kalamata 67%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Levadiakos and 33% for Kalamata.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Levadiakos have failed to score in 100% of games; Kalamata in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Kalamata away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Kalamata?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 67% of Kalamata's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Kalamata usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Levadiakos's recent games and 33% of Kalamata's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Kalamata tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Kalamata in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.