Levadiakos vs Atromitos – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 11 as Levadiakos welcome Atromitos to Levadia Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Levadiakos have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Levadia Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Levadiakos are significantly better at Levadia Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Atromitos — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Atromitos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Atromitos have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Levadiakos) versus 1.50 (Atromitos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Levadiakos, 3 for Atromitos and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Levadiakos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Levadiakos in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 53% versus Atromitos 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 65% | Atromitos 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.19 xG and Atromitos 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.894 / defence 1.137 | Atromitos attack 0.877 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 0.997. Data: 28 Levadiakos games / 28 Atromitos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 38% | Draw 33% | Atromitos 28%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Atromitos 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levadiakos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 60% | Atromitos 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 38% | Draw 33% | Atromitos 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Levadiakos 1.19 / Atromitos 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.894 / def 1.137 | Atromitos attack 0.877 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.474 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Atromitos xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Atromitos kick off?
Levadiakos vs Atromitos is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Levadia Stadium.
Where is Levadiakos vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Atromitos part of?
Levadiakos vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 38% chance of winning, Atromitos a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Levadiakos and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Atromitos?
Record (7 meetings): Levadiakos 2W | Draws 2 | Atromitos 3W.
What form are Levadiakos and Atromitos in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Atromitos (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Levadiakos's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
38%
2.62
33%
3.00
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.18
0.99
Atromitos xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
9%
11.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Levadiakos and 0.99 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Levadiakos have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 15W 7D 12L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Atromitos's form line: 11W 9D 14L from 34 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Atromitos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levadiakos on 1.53 PPG, Atromitos on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Levadiakos have posted 1.88 PPG from 16 outings (9W 3D 4L).
On the road, Atromitos have gone 6W 3D 7L from 16 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Levadiakos are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.35 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Early Season
Atromitos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 15W 7D 12L in their last 34 games (1.53 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 11W 9D 14L in their last 34 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Atromitos away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.88 PPG; Atromitos away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or Atromitos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Atromitos in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Levadiakos's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Levadiakos
2
Draws
3
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Atromitos?
From 7 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 2, Atromitos have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Levadiakos 1-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Atromitos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 56%, Atromitos 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Levadiakos) and 56% (Atromitos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Atromitos in 38%; Atromitos in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 38% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Levadiakos's matches and 56% of Atromitos's.
Do Levadiakos and Atromitos tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.