Levadiakos vs Atromitos – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Levadiakos take on Atromitos.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 11 as Levadiakos welcome Atromitos to Levadia Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Levadiakos have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Levadia Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Atromitos — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Atromitos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Atromitos have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Levadiakos) versus 0.80 (Atromitos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Levadiakos, 3 for Atromitos and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Levadiakos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Levadiakos in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 46% versus Atromitos 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 56% | Atromitos 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.87 xG and Atromitos 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.589 / defence 1.076 | Atromitos attack 0.932 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 0.976. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.589 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 Levadiakos games / 32 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 28% | Draw 39% | Atromitos 34%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 3.57 | Draw 2.56 | Atromitos 2.94. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 40% | Atromitos 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 28% | Draw 39% | Atromitos 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 39% | xG Levadiakos 0.87 / Atromitos 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.589 / def 1.076 | Atromitos attack 0.932 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.439 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Atromitos xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Atromitos kick off?
Levadiakos vs Atromitos is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Levadia Stadium.
Where is Levadiakos vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Atromitos part of?
Levadiakos vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 28% chance of winning, Atromitos a 34% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Levadiakos and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Atromitos?
Record (7 meetings): Levadiakos 2W | Draws 2 | Atromitos 3W.
What form are Levadiakos and Atromitos in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Atromitos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Levadiakos's attacking strength (0.59x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.62
39%
2.59
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
1.85
0.98
Atromitos xG
3.62
28%
Home win
2.59
39%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
10%
9.62
14%
7.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 15.5 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Levadiakos and 0.98 for Atromitos, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, Levadiakos have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 15W 9D 15L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Atromitos's form line: 11W 12D 16L from 39 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Atromitos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levadiakos on 1.38 PPG, Atromitos on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Levadiakos have posted 1.63 PPG from 19 outings (9W 4D 6L).
On the road, Atromitos have gone 6W 5D 8L from 19 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Levadiakos are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.31 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Early Season
Atromitos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 15W 9D 15L in their last 39 games (1.38 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 11W 12D 16L in their last 39 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Atromitos away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.63 PPG; Atromitos away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Levadiakos's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Levadiakos
2
Draws
3
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Atromitos?
From 7 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 2, Atromitos have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Levadiakos 1-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Atromitos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 47%, Atromitos 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Levadiakos) and 53% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Levadiakos keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Atromitos in 32%; Levadiakos have failed to score in 32% of games; Atromitos in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 47% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Levadiakos's recent games and 53% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Atromitos tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.