Levadiakos 1-0 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 26 as Levadiakos welcome Atromitos to Levadia Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Levadiakos have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Levadia Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Levadiakos are significantly better at Levadia Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Atromitos — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Atromitos have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Atromitos's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Levadiakos's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Levadiakos, 3 for Atromitos and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Levadiakos in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 60% versus Atromitos 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 60% | Atromitos 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.49 xG and Atromitos 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 1.354 / defence 1.182 | Atromitos attack 1.005 / defence 0.820. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.097. Levadiakos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.354 — their λ of 1.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Levadiakos games / 51 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 40% | Draw 28% | Atromitos 32%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Atromitos 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Atromitos (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levadiakos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 60% | Atromitos 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 40% | Draw 28% | Atromitos 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Levadiakos 1.49 / Atromitos 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 1.354 / def 1.182 | Atromitos attack 1.005 / def 0.820 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Atromitos xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Atromitos kick off?
Levadiakos vs Atromitos kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Levadia Stadium.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Levadiakos 1 - 0 Atromitos.
Where is Levadiakos vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Atromitos part of?
Levadiakos vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 40% chance of winning, Atromitos a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Levadiakos and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Atromitos?
Record (6 meetings): Levadiakos 1W | Draws 2 | Atromitos 3W.
What form are Levadiakos and Atromitos in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Atromitos (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Levadiakos's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
40%
2.50
28%
3.54
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.79
1.30
Atromitos xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
11%
9.20
7%
14.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.9 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.30 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Levadiakos have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 24W 15D 18L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atromitos's form line: 19W 15D 23L from 57 games, 1.26 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levadiakos on 1.53 PPG, Atromitos on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Levadiakos have posted 1.61 PPG from 28 outings (13W 6D 9L).
On the road, Atromitos have gone 14W 5D 9L from 28 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.26 PPG overall record — Atromitos travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Levadiakos are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.14 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 24W 15D 18L in their last 57 games (1.53 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 19W 15D 23L in their last 57 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Atromitos away?
Atromitos's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.61 PPG; Atromitos away: 1.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Levadiakos's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Levadiakos
2
Draws
3
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Atromitos?
From 7 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 2, Atromitos have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Levadiakos 1-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Atromitos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 61%, Atromitos 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Levadiakos) and 54% (Atromitos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atromitos in 32%; Atromitos in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 46% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Levadiakos's matches and 54% of Atromitos's.
Do Levadiakos and Atromitos tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Levadiakos edge out Atromitos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos beat Atromitos 1-0 at Levadia Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.49 xG and Atromitos 1.30 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atromitos landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.35 / defence 1.18 against Atromitos attack 1.00 / defence 0.82, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 40% | Draw 28% | Atromitos 32%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 60%, Atromitos 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Atromitos's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.53 PPG, Atromitos 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.