Lamia 1-1 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamia at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamia vs PAS Giannina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias plays host to Lamia versus PAS Giannina in Super League 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Thursday 29 December 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lamia have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia's home record at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
PAS Giannina's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, PAS Giannina have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Lamia 0W, PAS Giannina 2W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Lamia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
PAS Giannina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 41% versus PAS Giannina 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 43% | PAS Giannina 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.35 xG and PAS Giannina 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.875 / defence 1.244 | PAS Giannina attack 0.848 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.050. PAS Giannina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing Lamia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Lamia games / 40 PAS Giannina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 38% | Draw 35% | PAS Giannina 27%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 2.63 | Draw 2.86 | PAS Giannina 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lamia as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Lamia 40% | PAS Giannina 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Dec 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 38% | Draw 35% | PAS Giannina 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Lamia 1.35 / PAS Giannina 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.875 / def 1.244 | PAS Giannina attack 0.848 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Lamia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.11
PAS Giannina xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Lamia vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 16:30 on Thursday 29 December 2022 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs PAS Giannina?
Lamia 1 - 1 PAS Giannina.
Where is Lamia vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs PAS Giannina part of?
Lamia vs PAS Giannina is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 38% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lamia and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and PAS Giannina?
Record (3 meetings): Lamia 0W | Draws 1 | PAS Giannina 2W.
What form are Lamia and PAS Giannina in?
Lamia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. PAS Giannina (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lamia's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against PAS Giannina's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — PAS Giannina's attack (0.85x) against Lamia's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
38%
2.60
35%
2.88
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.46
1.11
PAS Giannina xG
2.60
38%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
13%
7.88
7%
14.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Lamia and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Lamia and 1.11 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 8W 15D 26L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAS Giannina's form line: 13W 14D 22L from 49 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.80 PPG for Lamia against 1.08 for PAS Giannina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Lamia have posted 0.70 PPG from 23 outings (3W 7D 13L).
On the road, PAS Giannina have gone 3W 5D 15L from 23 away games — 0.61 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAS Giannina's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lamia are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 0.96 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
PAS Giannina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 8W 15D 26L in their last 49 games (0.80 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 13W 14D 22L in their last 49 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or PAS Giannina away?
Lamia's home record (0.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.70 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Lamia go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lamia won 1-4 on 4 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamia have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PAS Giannina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Lamia
2
Draws
2
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and PAS Giannina?
From 7 meetings on record, Lamia have won 3, PAS Giannina have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when PAS Giannina 1-4 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and PAS Giannina?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
PAS Giannina see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 52%, PAS Giannina 26% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Lamia) and 35% (PAS Giannina).
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 44% of games; PAS Giannina in 61%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play PAS Giannina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Lamia's recent matches and 26% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Lamia's recent games and 35% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and PAS Giannina tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, PAS Giannina in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamia and PAS Giannina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 15, as Lamia and PAS Giannina drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.35 xG and PAS Giannina 1.11 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.88 / defence 1.24 against PAS Giannina attack 0.85 / defence 1.25, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 38% | Draw 35% | PAS Giannina 27%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 43%, PAS Giannina 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 0.80 PPG, PAS Giannina 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.