Lamia 0-2 PAOK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates PAOK at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamia vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 26 as Lamia welcome PAOK to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 March 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lamia have posted 2W 2D 6L at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
PAOK — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PAOK have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. PAOK are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lamia, 1 for PAOK and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with PAOK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lamia trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
PAOK trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 48% versus PAOK 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 48% | PAOK 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 0.79 xG and PAOK 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.815 / defence 1.578 | PAOK attack 1.226 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.011 / away 1.054. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.226 — the away xG of 2.04 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 25 Lamia games / 25 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 13% | Draw 20% | PAOK 67%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 7.69 | Draw 5.00 | PAOK 1.49. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Lamia 60% | PAOK 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 13% | Draw 20% | PAOK 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 47% | xG Lamia 0.79 / PAOK 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.815 / def 1.578 | PAOK attack 1.226 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.011 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: PAOK (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
2.04
PAOK xG
47%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs PAOK kick off?
Lamia vs PAOK kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs PAOK?
Lamia 0 - 2 PAOK.
Where is Lamia vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs PAOK part of?
Lamia vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 13% chance of winning, PAOK a 67% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Lamia and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and PAOK?
Record (1 meetings): Lamia 0W | Draws 0 | PAOK 1W.
What form are Lamia and PAOK in?
Lamia (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. PAOK (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lamia's attack at 0.81x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 2.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
13%
7.46
20%
5.00
67%
1.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.82
2.04
PAOK xG
7.46
13%
Home win
5.00
20%
Draw
1.50
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
13%
7.68
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
2%
57.34
30%
3.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 12.1 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Lamia and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Lamia and 2.04 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs PAOK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 25 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.72 PPG on a 4W 6D 15L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK's form line: 15W 5D 5L from 25 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 1.28 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lamia have posted 0.75 PPG from 12 outings (2W 3D 7L).
On the road, PAOK have gone 7W 2D 3L from 12 away games — 1.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamia are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.92 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and PAOK in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 4W 6D 15L in their last 25 games (0.72 PPG), while PAOK have gone 15W 5D 5L in their last 25 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.75 PPG; PAOK away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Lamia or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, PAOK in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: PAOK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Feb 2025, when PAOK won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamia's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Lamia
1
Draws
9
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 0, PAOK have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when PAOK 7-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 67%, PAOK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Lamia and 58% for PAOK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAOK in 42%; Lamia have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play PAOK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lamia's games and 50% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamia vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Lamia's matches and 58% of PAOK's.
Do Lamia and PAOK tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, PAOK in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Lamia 0-2 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.79 xG and PAOK 2.04 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.81 / defence 1.58 against PAOK attack 1.23 / defence 0.95, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 13% | Draw 20% | PAOK 67%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 48%, PAOK 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAOK's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.72. That form edge translated into the three points. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. PAOK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.