Lamia 2-2 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamia at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamia vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias plays host to Lamia versus Atromitos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 31 October 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Lamia (all games): 1W 2D 4L across 7 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.71 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.86 goals per game and conceding 1.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Lamia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Lamia have gone 0W 1D 2L this season (3 games, 0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Atromitos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 2D 5L from 7 games (0.29 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.43 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Atromitos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Atromitos have posted 0W 1D 2L from 3 away outings — 0.33 PPG.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.71 for Lamia, 0.29 for Atromitos — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Lamia — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Atromitos — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 57% versus Atromitos 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 57% | Atromitos 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.22 xG and Atromitos 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.824 / defence 1.242 | Atromitos attack 0.561 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.159. Atromitos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing Lamia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Lamia games / 7 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 44% | Draw 33% | Atromitos 23%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Atromitos 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lamia as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 67% | Atromitos 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 44% | Draw 33% | Atromitos 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Lamia 1.22 / Atromitos 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.824 / def 1.242 | Atromitos attack 0.561 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Lamia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Atromitos xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Atromitos kick off?
Lamia vs Atromitos kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Atromitos?
Lamia 2 - 2 Atromitos.
Where is Lamia vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Atromitos part of?
Lamia vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 44% chance of winning, Atromitos a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Lamia and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Atromitos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lamia and Atromitos in?
Lamia (all comps): 1W-2D-4L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 1.29 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Atromitos (all comps): 0W-2D-5L in 7 | 0.29 PPG | GF 0.43 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lamia's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Atromitos's attack (0.56x) against Lamia's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 14.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
44%
2.26
33%
3.04
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.02
0.81
Atromitos xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
7%
14.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 10.7 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.0 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Lamia and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Lamia and 0.81 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lamia's recent record stands at 1W 2D 4L from 7 games, a 0.71 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lamia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Atromitos, meanwhile, have gone 0W 2D 5L across 7 games — 0.29 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Atromitos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lamia by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atromitos heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lamia have managed 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atromitos's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Lamia are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 0.43 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Early Season
Atromitos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 games (0.71 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 0W 2D 5L in their last 7 (0.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Atromitos away?
Lamia's home record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.33 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Atromitos go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atromitos won 0-3 on 12 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamia have gone 1W 4D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Atromitos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lamia
5
Draws
4
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 1, Atromitos have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2025, when Lamia 0-3 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Atromitos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Atromitos see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 67% (Lamia) and 0% (Atromitos) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Lamia and 67% for Atromitos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atromitos in 33%; Lamia have failed to score in 33% of games; Atromitos in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Lamia's recent matches and 0% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Lamia's matches and 67% of Atromitos's.
Do Lamia and Atromitos tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamia and Atromitos share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia and Atromitos finished level at 2-2 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.22 xG and Atromitos 0.81 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Atromitos outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.82 / defence 1.24 against Atromitos attack 0.56 / defence 1.34, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 44% | Draw 33% | Atromitos 23%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 57%, Atromitos 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Atromitos's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lamia arrived the stronger side — 0.71 PPG against 0.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lamia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.