Lamia 2-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Aris Thessalonikis (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lamia face Aris Thessalonikis.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamia host Aris Thessalonikis at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Super League 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 March 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Lamia — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Lamia have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Aris Thessalonikis — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Lamia have won 0, Aris Thessalonikis 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2022, ended 0–5 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lamia in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Lamia 41% | Aris Thessalonikis 29%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 42% | Aris Thessalonikis 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 0.79 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.721 / defence 1.622 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.984 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 0.994. Lamia's attack strength of 0.721 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Lamia games / 50 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 15% | Draw 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 53%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 6.67 | Draw 3.12 | Aris Thessalonikis 1.89. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 50% | Aris Thessalonikis 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 15% | Draw 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Lamia 0.79 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.721 / def 1.622 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.984 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.190 / away 0.994 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Aris Thessalonikis xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Lamia 2 - 1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 15% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 53% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (3 meetings): Lamia 0W | Draws 1 | Aris Thessalonikis 2W.
What form are Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Lamia (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lamia's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Aris Thessalonikis's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 0-2 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
15%
6.64
32%
3.12
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.7%
Away win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.38
1.59
Aris Thessalonikis xG
6.64
15%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
45%
2.20
Win to Nil
3%
32.49
24%
4.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 14.7 | 11.7 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Lamia and 1.59 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.73 PPG on a 8W 19D 32L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 29W 11D 19L from 59 games, 1.66 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Aris Thessalonikis are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lamia have posted 0.62 PPG from 29 outings (3W 9D 17L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 12W 4D 13L from 29 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamia are averaging 0.63 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.24 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis in 29%.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 8W 19D 32L in their last 59 games (0.73 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 29W 11D 19L in their last 59 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Aris Thessalonikis's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.62 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Lamia or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Aris Thessalonikis go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2022, when Aris Thessalonikis won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamia's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lamia
2
Draws
6
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 2, Aris Thessalonikis have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Lamia 0-2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 52%, Aris Thessalonikis 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Lamia) and 34% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis in 38%; Lamia have failed to score in 45% of games; Aris Thessalonikis in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Lamia's recent matches and 28% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Lamia's recent games and 34% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lamia defy the odds to beat Aris Thessalonikis 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia beat Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.79 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.59 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Lamia beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.72 / defence 1.62 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.98 / defence 0.92, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 15% | Draw 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 53%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Lamia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 42%, Aris Thessalonikis 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.73. Form was overturned, with Lamia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lamia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.