Kifisia 0-0 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Kifisia take on Panetolikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Relegation Group - 5 sees Panetolikos travel to Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis to take on Kifisia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kifisia stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Kifisia at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Kifisia) versus 1.20 (Panetolikos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Panetolikos, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Kifisia.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with Panetolikos winning.
It is worth noting that Panetolikos have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Kifisia in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kifisia 63% versus Panetolikos 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kifisia 53% | Panetolikos 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kifisia 1.02 xG and Panetolikos 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kifisia attack 0.889 / defence 1.195 | Panetolikos attack 0.818 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.065. Data: 26 Kifisia games / 52 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kifisia 32% | Draw 35% | Panetolikos 33%. Fair-value odds: Kifisia 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | Panetolikos 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Kifisia 40% | Panetolikos 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kifisia vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Group - 5 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kifisia 32% | Draw 35% | Panetolikos 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Kifisia 1.02 / Panetolikos 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Kifisia attack 0.889 / def 1.195 | Panetolikos attack 0.818 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Kifisia xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Panetolikos xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kifisia vs Panetolikos kick off?
Kifisia vs Panetolikos kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis.
What was the final score in Kifisia vs Panetolikos?
Kifisia 0 - 0 Panetolikos.
Where is Kifisia vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis.
What competition is Kifisia vs Panetolikos part of?
Kifisia vs Panetolikos is a Relegation Group - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kifisia vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Kifisia a 32% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Kifisia vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Kifisia and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will Kifisia vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and Panetolikos?
Record (5 meetings): Kifisia 0W | Draws 2 | Panetolikos 3W.
What form are Kifisia and Panetolikos in?
Kifisia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Panetolikos (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kifisia's attack at 0.89x the league average against Panetolikos's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Panetolikos's attack versus Kifisia's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.10
35%
2.89
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Kifisia xG
Total xG
2.06
1.04
Panetolikos xG
3.10
32%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
11%
8.76
12%
8.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kifisia vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Kifisia and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Kifisia and 1.04 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Kifisia vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Kifisia have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 6W 12D 12L record — L-L-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Panetolikos's form line: 8W 6D 16L from 30 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kifisia on 1.00 PPG, Panetolikos on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kifisia have posted 1.13 PPG from 15 outings (4W 5D 6L).
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 4W 4D 7L from 15 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Kifisia are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kifisia have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kifisia
Current Season
Panetolikos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kifisia and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Kifisia have gone 6W 12D 12L in their last 30 games (1.00 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 8W 6D 16L in their last 30 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kifisia at home or Panetolikos away?
Kifisia's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kifisia at home: 1.13 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Dec 2023, when Panetolikos won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kifisia's record when hosting Panetolikos specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Kifisia
3
Draws
3
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and Panetolikos?
From 7 meetings on record, Kifisia have won 1, Panetolikos have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kifisia and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Panetolikos 0-1 Kifisia.
Who has won more matches between Kifisia and Panetolikos?
Panetolikos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kifisia 53%, Panetolikos 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Kifisia) and 27% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: Kifisia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kifisia have failed to score in 27% of games; Panetolikos in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kifisia home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kifisia play Panetolikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Kifisia's recent matches and 33% of Panetolikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kifisia vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Kifisia's recent games and 27% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kifisia and Panetolikos tend to score early?
Kifisia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kifisia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis, Relegation Group - 5, as Kifisia and Panetolikos drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kifisia 1.02 xG and Panetolikos 1.04 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kifisia fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Panetolikos landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kifisia attack 0.89 / defence 1.20 against Panetolikos attack 0.82 / defence 0.88, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kifisia 32% | Draw 35% | Panetolikos 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kifisia 53%, Panetolikos 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kifisia's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Panetolikos's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kifisia 1.00 PPG, Panetolikos 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kifisia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.