Kalamata vs Atromitos – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kalamata at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalamata vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium plays host to Kalamata versus Atromitos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 13 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kalamata have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kalamata, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium, Kalamata have gone 2W 1D 2L this season (5 games, 1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Atromitos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atromitos's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Kalamata against 0.90 for Atromitos. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Kalamata have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Atromitos in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kalamata lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Kalamata half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 30% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Atromitos half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kalamata 70% and Atromitos 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalamata 50% | Atromitos 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalamata 1.60 xG and Atromitos 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalamata attack 1.062 / defence 1.427 | Atromitos attack 0.841 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.034. Data: 10 Kalamata games / 35 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalamata 43% | Draw 31% | Atromitos 27%. Fair-value odds: Kalamata 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Atromitos 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kalamata at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kalamata if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kalamata 80% | Atromitos 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalamata vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalamata 43% | Draw 31% | Atromitos 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Kalamata 1.60 / Atromitos 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Kalamata attack 1.062 / def 1.427 | Atromitos attack 0.841 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Kalamata (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Kalamata xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Atromitos xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalamata vs Atromitos kick off?
Kalamata vs Atromitos is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium.
Where is Kalamata vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium.
What competition is Kalamata vs Atromitos part of?
Kalamata vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kalamata vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Kalamata a 43% chance of winning, Atromitos a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Kalamata the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalamata vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Kalamata and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Kalamata vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalamata and Atromitos?
Record (1 meetings): Kalamata 0W | Draws 1 | Atromitos 0W.
What form are Kalamata and Atromitos in?
Kalamata (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Atromitos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kalamata's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — Atromitos's attack (0.84x) against Kalamata's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 10/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalamata Win
43%
2.34
31%
3.27
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Kalamata xG
Total xG
2.84
1.24
Atromitos xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
12%
8.08
5%
18.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.6 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalamata vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Kalamata and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Kalamata and 1.24 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalamata vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kalamata's recent record stands at 3W 3D 4L from 10 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Kalamata is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atromitos, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 5L across 10 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Kalamata against 0.90 for Atromitos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kalamata have managed 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atromitos's away record stands at 0W 2D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atromitos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalamata come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kalamata are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.50 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kalamata have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Atromitos in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalamata
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalamata and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Kalamata have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalamata at home or Atromitos away?
Kalamata's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalamata at home: 1.40 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Kalamata or Atromitos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalamata have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Atromitos in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since September 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Kalamata
1
Draws
0
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalamata and Atromitos?
From 1 meetings on record, Kalamata have won 0, Atromitos have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kalamata and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Atromitos 1-1 Kalamata.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kalamata are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Kalamata, 60% for Atromitos — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Kalamata) and 40% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Atromitos in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalamata home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalamata play Atromitos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Kalamata's games and 60% of Atromitos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kalamata vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Kalamata's recent games and 40% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalamata and Atromitos tend to score early?
Kalamata have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.