Ionikos 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ionikos face Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias to face Ionikos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Tuesday 3 January 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Ionikos (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ionikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ionikos's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Ionikos are significantly better at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias than their overall form suggests.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Olympiakos Piraeus arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ionikos have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Olympiakos Piraeus, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 1–3 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
It is worth noting that Olympiakos Piraeus have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Ionikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ionikos 54% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ionikos 48% | Olympiakos Piraeus 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ionikos 1.01 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ionikos attack 0.902 / defence 1.257 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.158 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.008. Data: 41 Ionikos games / 41 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ionikos 22% | Draw 34% | Olympiakos Piraeus 44%. Fair-value odds: Ionikos 4.55 | Draw 2.94 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Ionikos 80% | Olympiakos Piraeus 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ionikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Jan 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ionikos 22% | Draw 34% | Olympiakos Piraeus 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Ionikos 1.01 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Ionikos attack 0.902 / def 1.257 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.158 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Ionikos xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ionikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Ionikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 3 January 2023 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What was the final score in Ionikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Ionikos 0 - 2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Ionikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What competition is Ionikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Ionikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Ionikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Ionikos a 22% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 44% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ionikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ionikos and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Ionikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (3 meetings): Ionikos 0W | Draws 0 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3W.
What form are Ionikos and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Ionikos (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ionikos's attack rating (0.90) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.16x) against Ionikos's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
22%
4.47
34%
2.96
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Ionikos xG
Total xG
2.48
1.47
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
4.47
22%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
5%
19.39
16%
6.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ionikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Ionikos and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Ionikos and 1.47 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Ionikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ionikos come into this having played 48 games, going 13W 14D 21L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Ionikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Olympiakos Piraeus sit at 2.19 PPG from 48 outings (31W 12D 5L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.09 PPG clear of Ionikos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Ionikos's home form reads 6W 10D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Olympiakos Piraeus have taken 2.00 points per game from 23 outings (13W 7D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ionikos are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.69 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ionikos
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ionikos and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Ionikos have gone 13W 14D 21L in their last 48 games (1.10 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 31W 12D 5L in their last 48 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ionikos at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ionikos at home: 1.22 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Ionikos or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ionikos have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Olympiakos Piraeus have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 0-3 on 6 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ionikos have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ionikos
0
Draws
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 4 meetings on record, Ionikos have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ionikos and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 3 January 2023, when Ionikos 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Ionikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ionikos 61%, Olympiakos Piraeus 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Ionikos) and 52% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 39%; Ionikos have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ionikos home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ionikos play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Ionikos's games and 56% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ionikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Ionikos's recent games and 52% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ionikos and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Ionikos have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ionikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Ionikos 0-2 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ionikos 1.01 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.47 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ionikos fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ionikos attack 0.90 / defence 1.26 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.16 / defence 0.92, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ionikos 22% | Draw 34% | Olympiakos Piraeus 44%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ionikos 48%, Olympiakos Piraeus 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ionikos's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Ionikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.