Ionikos 1-1 Lamia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Ionikos take on Lamia.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Ionikos host Lamia at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias in Super League 1 (matchday 7). Kick-off is Saturday 8 October 2022 at 18:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Ionikos — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Ionikos's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Lamia stand at 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Lamia's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ionikos at 1.30 PPG versus Lamia's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Ionikos have won 1, Lamia 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Apr 2022, ended Ionikos 1–0 Lamia — a Ionikos win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Ionikos in-play and half-time data (last 39 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Lamia in-play and half-time data (last 39 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ionikos 54% versus Lamia 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ionikos 51% | Lamia 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ionikos 0.87 xG and Lamia 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ionikos attack 0.830 / defence 1.263 | Lamia attack 0.739 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.024. Lamia's attack rating of 0.739 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Ionikos's defence rating of 1.263 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lamia's projected output up. Data: built from Ionikos's last 32 games and Lamia's last 32.

Result probabilities: Ionikos 29% | Draw 37% | Lamia 34%. Fair-value odds: Ionikos 3.44 | Draw 2.70 | Lamia 2.95. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 1.82 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 72% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ionikos 60% (last 10 home games) | Lamia 30% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights