Atromitos 1-2 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Atromitos at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Atromitos face Volos NFC.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Volos NFC make the trip to Stadio Peristeriou to face Atromitos in Super League 1 (matchday 7). The match kicks off on Saturday 5 October 2024 at 17:30 UK time.

Current Form

Atromitos's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Atromitos have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Volos NFC (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Volos NFC's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Atromitos against 0.90 for Volos NFC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Volos NFC edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 13 Apr 2024, ended Atromitos 2–2 Volos NFC — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Atromitos half-time and goal-timing data (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Volos NFC half-time and goal-timing data (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 62% versus Volos NFC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 49% | Volos NFC 56%). Note also that Volos NFC surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Atromitos recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.56 xG and Volos NFC 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 1.270 / defence 1.091 | Volos NFC attack 0.830 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.212. Atromitos carry an above-average attack rating of 1.270 — their 1.56 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Atromitos's last 32 games and Volos NFC's last 32.

Result probabilities: Atromitos 44% | Draw 32% | Volos NFC 23%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.26 | Draw 3.08 | Volos NFC 4.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Atromitos at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atromitos if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Atromitos 70% (last 10 home games) | Volos NFC 30% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights