Atromitos 3-1 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atromitos vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
OFI make the trip to Stadio Peristeriou to face Atromitos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Atromitos (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Atromitos haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atromitos have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadio Peristeriou — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
OFI's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. OFI haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
OFI's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Atromitos. A 0.50 PPG lead over OFI (1.60 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Atromitos — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
OFI — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 46% versus OFI 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 46% | OFI 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.39 xG and OFI 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 1.006 / defence 1.032 | OFI attack 0.975 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.159. Data: 26 Atromitos games / 26 OFI games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Atromitos 42% | Draw 27% | OFI 31%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | OFI 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atromitos as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atromitos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Atromitos 40% | OFI 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 42% | Draw 27% | OFI 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Atromitos 1.39 / OFI 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 1.006 / def 1.032 | OFI attack 0.975 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.17
OFI xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs OFI kick off?
Atromitos vs OFI kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs OFI?
Atromitos 3 - 1 OFI.
Where is Atromitos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs OFI part of?
Atromitos vs OFI is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 42% chance of winning, OFI a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Atromitos and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and OFI?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atromitos and OFI in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Atromitos (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 1.01x the league average against OFI's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — OFI's attack (0.97x) against Atromitos's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
42%
2.39
27%
3.69
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.56
1.17
OFI xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
8%
12.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Atromitos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.17 for OFI, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atromitos's recent record stands at 8W 9D 16L from 33 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-D in the last five. Atromitos haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 11L across 33 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. OFI haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Atromitos against 1.33 for OFI. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Atromitos have managed 6W 3D 7L from 16 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OFI's away record stands at 5W 6D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Atromitos are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.21 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Pre-Season
OFI
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and OFI in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 8W 9D 16L in their last 33 games (1.00 PPG), while OFI have gone 11W 11D 11L in their last 33 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or OFI away?
Atromitos's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.31 PPG; OFI away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Atromitos or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, OFI in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atromitos have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against OFI — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Atromitos
6
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 2, OFI have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Atromitos 1-2 OFI.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 50%, OFI 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Atromitos) and 50% (OFI).
On the defensive side: OFI in 31%; Atromitos have failed to score in 31% of games; OFI in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Atromitos's recent matches and 44% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Atromitos's recent games and 50% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and OFI tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, OFI in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atromitos cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat OFI 3-1 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.39 xG and OFI 1.17 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Atromitos beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against OFI attack 0.97 / defence 0.97, drawn from 26/26 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 42% | Draw 27% | OFI 31%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 46%, OFI 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
OFI's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.00 PPG, OFI 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. OFI (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.