Atromitos 0-0 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atromitos vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
OFI make the trip to Stadio Peristeriou to face Atromitos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 December 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Atromitos (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atromitos have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stadio Peristeriou — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Peristeriou this season.
OFI's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Atromitos against 0.90 for OFI. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Atromitos register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, OFI in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Atromitos lead 0W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Atromitos — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
OFI — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 62% versus OFI 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 51% | OFI 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.51 xG and OFI 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.983 / defence 1.098 | OFI attack 1.002 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.292. OFI bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Atromitos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Atromitos games / 40 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 39% | Draw 25% | OFI 36%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | OFI 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atromitos as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atromitos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 70% | OFI 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 39% | Draw 25% | OFI 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Atromitos 1.51 / OFI 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.983 / def 1.098 | OFI attack 1.002 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.42
OFI xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs OFI kick off?
Atromitos vs OFI kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs OFI?
Atromitos 0 - 0 OFI.
Where is Atromitos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs OFI part of?
Atromitos vs OFI is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 39% chance of winning, OFI a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Atromitos and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and OFI?
Record (5 meetings): Atromitos 0W | Draws 4 | OFI 1W.
What form are Atromitos and OFI in?
Atromitos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. OFI (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 0.98x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — OFI's attack (1.00x) against Atromitos's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
39%
2.54
25%
3.99
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.93
1.42
OFI xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
10%
10.52
8%
12.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Atromitos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.42 for OFI, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atromitos's recent record stands at 12W 16D 19L from 47 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 11W 18D 18L across 47 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Atromitos against 1.09 for OFI. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Atromitos have managed 7W 7D 9L from 23 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OFI's away record stands at 3W 10D 10L across 23 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Atromitos are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.15 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atromitos have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and OFI in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 12W 16D 19L in their last 47 games (1.11 PPG), while OFI have gone 11W 18D 18L in their last 47 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or OFI away?
Atromitos's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.22 PPG; OFI away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atromitos have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against OFI — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Atromitos
6
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 2, OFI have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Atromitos 1-2 OFI.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 61%, OFI 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Atromitos) and 65% (OFI). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atromitos have failed to score in 35% of games; OFI in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play OFI?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Atromitos's games and 56% of OFI's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atromitos vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Atromitos's matches and 65% of OFI's.
Do Atromitos and OFI tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, OFI in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Atromitos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos and OFI finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.51 xG and OFI 1.42 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atromitos fell 1.5 short of their projected output. OFI landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.98 / defence 1.10 against OFI attack 1.00 / defence 1.22, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 39% | Draw 25% | OFI 36%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 51%, OFI 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
OFI's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.11 PPG, OFI 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.