Atromitos 2-1 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atromitos at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Relegation Group - 5 sees Asteras Tripolis travel to Peristeri Stadium to take on Atromitos. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atromitos stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Peristeri Stadium, Atromitos have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Asteras Tripolis have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Asteras Tripolis away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Atromitos are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Atromitos, 5 for Asteras Tripolis and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Atromitos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Atromitos in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Asteras Tripolis in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 50% versus Asteras Tripolis 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 47% | Asteras Tripolis 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.43 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.913 / defence 1.074 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.767 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.065. Asteras Tripolis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Atromitos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Atromitos games / 52 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 48% | Draw 31% | Asteras Tripolis 21%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Asteras Tripolis 4.76. Atromitos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Asteras Tripolis lead the H2H ledger, but Atromitos carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Atromitos are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 40% | Asteras Tripolis 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Group - 5 | Venue: Peristeri Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 48% | Draw 31% | Asteras Tripolis 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Atromitos 1.43 / Asteras Tripolis 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.913 / def 1.074 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.767 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Asteras Tripolis xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Peristeri Stadium.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Atromitos 2 - 1 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Peristeri Stadium.
What competition is Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis is a Relegation Group - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 48% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (8 meetings): Atromitos 3W | Draws 0 | Asteras Tripolis 5W.
What form are Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis in?
Atromitos (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Atromitos's attack rating (0.91) and Asteras Tripolis's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Asteras Tripolis's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
48%
2.08
31%
3.24
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.31
0.88
Asteras Tripolis xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
5%
19.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Atromitos and 0.88 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, Atromitos have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 21W 17D 24L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Asteras Tripolis's form line: 18W 15D 29L from 62 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atromitos on 1.29 PPG, Asteras Tripolis on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Atromitos have posted 0.94 PPG from 31 outings (6W 11D 14L).
On the road, Asteras Tripolis have gone 7W 9D 15L from 31 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Atromitos are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 1.00 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Current Season
Asteras Tripolis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 21W 17D 24L in their last 62 games (1.29 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 18W 15D 29L in their last 62 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Asteras Tripolis's away record (0.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 0.94 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2025, when Atromitos won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atromitos's record when hosting Asteras Tripolis specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Atromitos
0
Draws
6
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 4, Asteras Tripolis have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Asteras Tripolis 4-2 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Asteras Tripolis see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 55%, Asteras Tripolis 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Atromitos) and 39% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis in 32%; Atromitos have failed to score in 36% of games; Asteras Tripolis in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Atromitos's recent matches and 45% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Atromitos's recent games and 39% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atromitos edge out Asteras Tripolis 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Asteras Tripolis 2-1 at Peristeri Stadium, Relegation Group - 5, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.43 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.88 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.91 / defence 1.07 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.77 / defence 1.20, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 48% | Draw 31% | Asteras Tripolis 21%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 47%, Asteras Tripolis 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.29 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.