Atromitos 1-3 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 41%, yet in-form Aris Thessalonikis provide a compelling counter-argument — this Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atromitos host Aris Thessalonikis at Stadio Peristeriou in Super League 1, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 27 September 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atromitos stand at 0W 1D 2L from 3 Super League 1 matches — 0.33 PPG. Last five: D L L. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Atromitos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Aris Thessalonikis have recorded 1W 1D 1L from 3 outings — 1.33 PPG. Last five: D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.33 per game is modest, conceding 0.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Aris Thessalonikis — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.33 vs 0.33). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Atromitos in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Atromitos 33% | Aris Thessalonikis 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atromitos 67% | Aris Thessalonikis 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.09 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.909 / defence 1.290 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.743 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.041 / away 0.862. Data: 3 Atromitos games / 3 Aris Thessalonikis games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Atromitos 41% | Draw 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 27%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Aris Thessalonikis 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atromitos are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Aris Thessalonikis (1.33 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 33% | Aris Thessalonikis 0% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Monday 27 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 41% | Draw 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Atromitos 1.09 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.909 / def 1.290 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.743 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.041 / away 0.862 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Aris Thessalonikis xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 27 September 2021 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Atromitos 1 - 3 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 41% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Atromitos (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-L-L. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 0.33 | L5 D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Atromitos's attack rating (0.91) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
41%
2.42
32%
3.16
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Atromitos xG
Total xG
1.92
0.83
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
9%
11.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 12.1 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Atromitos and 0.83 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atromitos's recent record stands at 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, a 0.33 PPG return, with D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Atromitos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Aris Thessalonikis, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 1L across 3 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Aris Thessalonikis by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atromitos heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Atromitos are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 0.33 scored and 0.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis in 0%.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Early Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Atromitos or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Atromitos's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Atromitos
4
Draws
5
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 1, Aris Thessalonikis have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atromitos see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Atromitos 33% BTTS, Aris Thessalonikis 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Atromitos and 0% for Aris Thessalonikis.
On the defensive side: Atromitos keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 67%; Atromitos have failed to score in 67% of games; Aris Thessalonikis in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Atromitos's recent matches and 0% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Atromitos's recent games and 0% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Aris Thessalonikis cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Atromitos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Atromitos 1-3 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.09 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.83 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis outscored their 0.83 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.91 / defence 1.29 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.74 / defence 1.16, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 41% | Draw 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 27%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Aris Thessalonikis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 67%, Aris Thessalonikis 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Atromitos shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Aris Thessalonikis scored 3 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.