Asteras Tripolis 0-2 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Asteras Tripolis at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Asteras Tripolis and Aris Thessalonikis meet at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 February 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Asteras Tripolis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's home record at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Aris Thessalonikis (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Asteras Tripolis's 2.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Aris Thessalonikis's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Asteras Tripolis have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Aris Thessalonikis in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading Data
Asteras Tripolis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Asteras Tripolis 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 26%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Asteras Tripolis 22% | Aris Thessalonikis 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.08 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 1.029 / defence 1.005 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.719 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 0.994 / away 1.076. Data: 23 Asteras Tripolis games / 24 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 42% | Draw 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 26%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Aris Thessalonikis 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Asteras Tripolis are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.86 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 42% | Draw 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.08 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 1.029 / def 1.005 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.719 / def 1.055 | league avg home 0.994 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Aris Thessalonikis xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Asteras Tripolis 0 - 2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 42% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Aris Thessalonikis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Asteras Tripolis's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Aris Thessalonikis's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.72x) against Asteras Tripolis's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 23/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
42%
2.37
32%
3.15
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
1.86
0.78
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
9%
11.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 12.1 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 0.78 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Asteras Tripolis come into this having played 23 games, going 10W 5D 8L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Aris Thessalonikis sit at 1.65 PPG from 23 outings (11W 5D 7L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Asteras Tripolis against 1.65 for Aris Thessalonikis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Asteras Tripolis's home form reads 7W 1D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Aris Thessalonikis have taken 1.42 points per game from 12 outings (5W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Asteras Tripolis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.04 scored and 0.87 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis in 26%.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games; Aris Thessalonikis in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 10W 5D 8L in their last 23 games (1.52 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 11W 5D 7L in their last 23 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Asteras Tripolis's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.83 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Aris Thessalonikis won 3-0 on 8 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Asteras Tripolis have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Asteras Tripolis
2
Draws
6
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 2, Aris Thessalonikis have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Asteras Tripolis 0-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Asteras Tripolis) and 33% (Aris Thessalonikis) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Asteras Tripolis and 25% for Aris Thessalonikis.
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 33%; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 33% of games; Aris Thessalonikis in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 33% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 25% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aris Thessalonikis cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Asteras Tripolis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Asteras Tripolis 0-2 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.08 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.78 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Aris Thessalonikis outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 1.03 / defence 1.00 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.72 / defence 1.05, drawn from 23/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 42% | Draw 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 26%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Aris Thessalonikis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 26% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 22%, Aris Thessalonikis 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 28%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (23 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (23 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.52 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.