Aris Thessalonikis 2-0 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Volos NFC travel to Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium to take on Aris Thessalonikis. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 August 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Aris Thessalonikis — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Aris Thessalonikis haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Volos NFC haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Volos NFC's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Aris Thessalonikis 1.90 PPG, Volos NFC 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Aris Thessalonikis have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while Volos NFC have managed just 1 wins.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Aris Thessalonikis a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Aris Thessalonikis trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Volos NFC trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 50% versus Volos NFC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 34% | Volos NFC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.33 xG and Volos NFC 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.981 / defence 0.939 | Volos NFC attack 0.961 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.087. Data: 26 Aris Thessalonikis games / 26 Volos NFC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 45% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 28%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Volos NFC 3.57. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 30% | Volos NFC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Aug 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 45% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.33 / Volos NFC 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.981 / def 0.939 | Volos NFC attack 0.961 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Volos NFC xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 23 August 2025 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Aris Thessalonikis 2 - 0 Volos NFC.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 45% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC?
Record (6 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 4W | Draws 1 | Volos NFC 1W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (0.98) and Volos NFC's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.60
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.31
0.98
Volos NFC xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
7%
13.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.98 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, Aris Thessalonikis have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 16W 8D 8L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. Aris Thessalonikis haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Volos NFC's form line: 10W 6D 16L from 32 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. Volos NFC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Aris Thessalonikis are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Volos NFC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 2.25 PPG from 16 outings (11W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Aris Thessalonikis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 6W 2D 8L from 16 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.06 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Pre-Season
Volos NFC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 16W 8D 8L in their last 32 games (1.75 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 10W 6D 16L in their last 32 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Volos NFC away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 2.25 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Aris Thessalonikis have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when Aris Thessalonikis won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Aris Thessalonikis
2
Draws
1
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 7, Volos NFC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Volos NFC 1-2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 38%, Volos NFC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 62% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Volos NFC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 50% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 62% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aris Thessalonikis cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Volos NFC 2-0 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.33 xG and Volos NFC 0.98 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Volos NFC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.98 / defence 0.94 against Volos NFC attack 0.96 / defence 1.03, drawn from 26/26 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 45% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 28%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 34%, Volos NFC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Volos NFC's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.