Aris Thessalonikis 3-1 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 26 as Aris Thessalonikis welcome PAS Giannina to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 March 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Aris Thessalonikis are significantly better at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, PAS Giannina have recorded 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAS Giannina away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Aris Thessalonikis 1.20 PPG, PAS Giannina 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Aris Thessalonikis, 2 for PAS Giannina and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 4–0 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
PAS Giannina in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 30% versus PAS Giannina 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Aris Thessalonikis 41% | PAS Giannina 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.74 xG and PAS Giannina 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.318 / defence 0.889 | PAS Giannina attack 0.948 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 0.992. Aris Thessalonikis carry an above-average attack strength of 1.318 — their λ of 1.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Aris Thessalonikis games / 51 PAS Giannina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 55% | Draw 30% | PAS Giannina 14%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.82 | Draw 3.33 | PAS Giannina 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Aris Thessalonikis (55%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 50% | PAS Giannina 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 55% | Draw 30% | PAS Giannina 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.74 / PAS Giannina 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.318 / def 0.889 | PAS Giannina attack 0.948 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.239 / away 0.992 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.84
PAS Giannina xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina?
Aris Thessalonikis 3 - 1 PAS Giannina.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 55% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 14% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina?
Record (5 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 2W | Draws 1 | PAS Giannina 2W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. PAS Giannina (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (1.32) and PAS Giannina's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAS Giannina's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
55%
1.80
30%
3.32
14%
6.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.57
0.84
PAS Giannina xG
1.80
55%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
6.91
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
3%
39.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.1 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.84 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 29W 12D 20L from 61 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAS Giannina, meanwhile, have gone 16W 21D 24L across 61 games — 1.13 PPG, with D-D-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Aris Thessalonikis by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PAS Giannina heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 17W 8D 5L from 30 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAS Giannina's away record stands at 5W 10D 15L across 30 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 0.93 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
PAS Giannina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 29W 12D 20L in their last 61 games (1.62 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 16W 21D 24L in their last 61 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or PAS Giannina away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.97 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or PAS Giannina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, PAS Giannina in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Nov 2021, when PAS Giannina won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting PAS Giannina specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Aris Thessalonikis
2
Draws
2
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina?
From 8 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 4, PAS Giannina have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when PAS Giannina 0-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
PAS Giannina see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Aris Thessalonikis 30% BTTS, PAS Giannina 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 30% (PAS Giannina).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 37% of games; PAS Giannina in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play PAS Giannina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 33% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 30% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Aris Thessalonikis cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over PAS Giannina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat PAS Giannina 3-1 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.74 xG and PAS Giannina 0.84 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.32 / defence 0.89 against PAS Giannina attack 0.95 / defence 1.06, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 55% | Draw 30% | PAS Giannina 14%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 41%, PAS Giannina 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.