Aris Thessalonikis 1-2 PAOK – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates PAOK at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis plays host to Aris Thessalonikis versus PAOK in Super League 1, Championship Round - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.

Current Form

Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

At home at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

PAOK (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

PAOK away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

PAOK arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Aris Thessalonikis register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, PAOK in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Aris Thessalonikis 2W, PAOK 2W, 1D.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 1–0 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).

PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 45% versus PAOK 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 52% | PAOK 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.30 xG and PAOK 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.081 / defence 0.946 | PAOK attack 1.422 / defence 0.738. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.362. PAOK's defence strength of 0.738 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.422 — the away xG of 1.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Aris Thessalonikis games / 52 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 25% | Draw 27% | PAOK 48%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | PAOK 2.08. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 70% | PAOK 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights