Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Aris Thessalonikis take on Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to face Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 September 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Aris Thessalonikis have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Aris Thessalonikis's home record at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Aris Thessalonikis, 2.10 for Olympiakos Piraeus — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 28% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 35% | Olympiakos Piraeus 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.03 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.077 / defence 0.791 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.918 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.125 / away 0.990. Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 30 Aris Thessalonikis games / 30 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 38% | Draw 41% | Olympiakos Piraeus 21%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.63 | Draw 2.44 | Olympiakos Piraeus 4.76. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 21% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.75 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 20% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 38% | Draw 41% | Olympiakos Piraeus 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 37% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.03 / Olympiakos Piraeus 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.077 / def 0.791 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.918 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.125 / away 0.990 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Aris Thessalonikis 2 - 1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 38% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 21% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (1.08) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (0.92x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
38%
2.61
41%
2.46
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
1.75
0.72
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
2.61
38%
Home win
2.46
41%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
8%
13.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.4 | 12.5 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.9 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.1%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.72 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 20W 9D 11L from 40 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Olympiakos Piraeus, meanwhile, have gone 27W 10D 3L across 40 games — 2.28 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aris Thessalonikis heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 10W 6D 3L from 19 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record stands at 12W 5D 2L across 19 trips, a 2.16 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.70 scored and 0.70 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis have seen both teams score in 28% of their recent games.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 20W 9D 11L in their last 40 games (1.72 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 27W 10D 3L in their last 40 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.89 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.16 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-1 on 27 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Aris Thessalonikis
3
Draws
5
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 2, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 21%, Olympiakos Piraeus 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 53% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 63% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 42%; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 47% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 53% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 53% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Aris Thessalonikis edge out Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.03 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.72 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.08 / defence 0.79 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.92 / defence 0.85, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 38% | Draw 41% | Olympiakos Piraeus 21%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual Aris Thessalonikis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 35%, Olympiakos Piraeus 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.72. Form was overturned, with Aris Thessalonikis winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.