Aris Thessalonikis 5-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Lamia travel to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to take on Aris Thessalonikis. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 8 November 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Aris Thessalonikis — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Aris Thessalonikis are significantly better at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lamia have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Aris Thessalonikis 1.20 PPG, Lamia 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Aris Thessalonikis, 0 for Lamia and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Aris Thessalonikis trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Lamia trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 30% versus Lamia 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Aris Thessalonikis 35% | Lamia 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.05 xG and Lamia 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.031 / defence 0.920 | Lamia attack 0.618 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.110. Data: 37 Aris Thessalonikis games / 37 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 42% | Draw 40% | Lamia 18%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.38 | Draw 2.50 | Lamia 5.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 40% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Lamia's lower xG of 0.63 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 40% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.69 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 40% | Lamia 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Nov 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 42% | Draw 40% | Lamia 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 34% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.05 / Lamia 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.031 / def 0.920 | Lamia attack 0.618 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Lamia xG
34%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 8 November 2022 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia?
Aris Thessalonikis 5 - 0 Lamia.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 42% chance of winning, Lamia a 18% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia?
Record (2 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 1W | Draws 1 | Lamia 0W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Lamia (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Aris Thessalonikis's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Lamia's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 0.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.9%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
42%
2.41
40%
2.47
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
1.69
0.63
Lamia xG
2.41
42%
Home win
2.47
40%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.92
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
6%
15.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.5 | 11.7 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.5 | 12.3 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.1%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.63 for Lamia, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Aris Thessalonikis come into this having played 46 games, going 22W 10D 14L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 0.85 PPG from 46 outings (8W 15D 23L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Lamia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Aris Thessalonikis's home form reads 12W 7D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 1.00 points per game from 23 outings (5W 8D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.70 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 22W 10D 14L in their last 46 games (1.65 PPG), while Lamia have gone 8W 15D 23L in their last 46 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Lamia away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.87 PPG; Lamia away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Lamia in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Aris Thessalonikis have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2022, when Aris Thessalonikis won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Aris Thessalonikis
2
Draws
2
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 6, Lamia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Lamia 0-2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Aris Thessalonikis 30% BTTS, Lamia 30%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for Aris Thessalonikis and 26% for Lamia.
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Lamia in 35%; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 44% of games; Lamia in 61%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 30% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 26% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Lamia in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Aris Thessalonikis run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Lamia 5-0 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.05 xG and Lamia 0.63 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.03 / defence 0.92 against Lamia attack 0.62 / defence 0.87, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 42% | Draw 40% | Lamia 18%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 35%, Lamia 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lamia's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 52% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Lamia (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.