Aris Thessalonikis 1-3 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis host Atromitos at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 November 2023 at 18:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Aris Thessalonikis — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Atromitos have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atromitos's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Aris Thessalonikis have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Aris Thessalonikis register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Atromitos in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Aris Thessalonikis have won 1, Atromitos 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2023, ended 2–1 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 48% versus Atromitos 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 57% | Atromitos 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 2.03 xG and Atromitos 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.021 / defence 0.795 | Atromitos attack 0.776 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.097. Atromitos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Aris Thessalonikis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating of 0.795 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Aris Thessalonikis games / 35 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 66% | Draw 25% | Atromitos 9%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.52 | Draw 4.00 | Atromitos 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Aris Thessalonikis (66%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Aris Thessalonikis 60% | Atromitos 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 66% | Draw 25% | Atromitos 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 45% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 2.03 / Atromitos 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.021 / def 0.795 | Atromitos attack 0.776 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Atromitos xG
45%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Aris Thessalonikis 1 - 3 Atromitos.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 66% chance of winning, Atromitos a 9% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos?
Record (2 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 1W | Draws 1 | Atromitos 0W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Atromitos (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Aris Thessalonikis's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 1-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
66%
1.51
25%
4.00
9%
11.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.71
0.68
Atromitos xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
11.63
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
13%
7.61
Win to Nil
34%
2.97
1%
88.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.68 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 18W 7D 17L from 42 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atromitos, meanwhile, have gone 10W 14D 18L across 42 games — 1.05 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Aris Thessalonikis on 1.45 PPG, Atromitos on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 14W 2D 5L from 21 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Aris Thessalonikis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Atromitos's away record stands at 2W 6D 13L across 21 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atromitos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 0.98 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 18W 7D 17L in their last 42 games (1.45 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 10W 14D 18L in their last 42 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Atromitos away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 2.10 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Atromitos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Atromitos in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Aris Thessalonikis
4
Draws
1
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 5, Atromitos have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 57%, Atromitos 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 38% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Atromitos in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Atromitos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Aris Thessalonikis's games and 57% of Atromitos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 38% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atromitos cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Aris Thessalonikis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Aris Thessalonikis 1-3 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 2.03 xG and Atromitos 0.68 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Atromitos outscored their 0.68 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.02 / defence 0.80 against Atromitos attack 0.78 / defence 1.26, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 66% | Draw 25% | Atromitos 9%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Atromitos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 57%, Atromitos 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Atromitos's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.45 PPG, Atromitos 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.