Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AEK Athens FC at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AEK Athens FC make the trip to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to face Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Wednesday 2 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis this season: 4W 3D 1L from 8 home games — 1.88 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 8 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis. At home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
AEK Athens FC (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AEK Athens FC have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Aris Thessalonikis against 1.60 for AEK Athens FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
AEK Athens FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 26% versus AEK Athens FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 26% | AEK Athens FC 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 0.76 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.824 / defence 1.051 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.064 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 0.981 / away 1.162. Data: 19 Aris Thessalonikis games / 19 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 22% | Draw 29% | AEK Athens FC 49%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 4.55 | Draw 3.45 | AEK Athens FC 2.04. AEK Athens FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 12% | AEK Athens FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 22% | Draw 29% | AEK Athens FC 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 39% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 0.76 / AEK Athens FC 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.824 / def 1.051 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.064 / def 0.938 | league avg home 0.981 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.30
AEK Athens FC xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 2 February 2022 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC?
Aris Thessalonikis 2 - 1 AEK Athens FC.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 22% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 49% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Aris Thessalonikis's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against AEK Athens FC's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.76. Flip it around — AEK Athens FC's attack (1.06x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
22%
4.60
29%
3.47
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.06
1.30
AEK Athens FC xG
4.60
22%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
6%
16.86
23%
4.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 16.6 | 10.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.30 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Aris Thessalonikis come into this having played 19 games, going 9W 5D 5L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AEK Athens FC sit at 1.89 PPG from 19 outings (11W 3D 5L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Aris Thessalonikis against 1.89 for AEK Athens FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Aris Thessalonikis's home form reads 4W 3D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, AEK Athens FC have taken 2.50 points per game from 8 outings (6W 2D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.89 PPG overall record — AEK Athens FC travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 1.74 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis have seen both teams score in 26% of their recent games.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games; AEK Athens FC in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
AEK Athens FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 9W 5D 5L in their last 19 games (1.68 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 11W 3D 5L in their last 19 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or AEK Athens FC away?
AEK Athens FC's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.88 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 4-0 on 30 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AEK Athens FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Aris Thessalonikis
3
Draws
7
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 0, AEK Athens FC have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 1-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 12% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 50% (AEK Athens FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 50% (AEK Athens FC).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; AEK Athens FC in 50%; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 12% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 50% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 50% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Aris Thessalonikis defy the odds to beat AEK Athens FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat AEK Athens FC 2-1 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 0.76 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.30 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.82 / defence 1.05 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.94, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 22% | Draw 29% | AEK Athens FC 49%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Aris Thessalonikis win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 26%, AEK Athens FC 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.68 PPG, AEK Athens FC 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.