AEK Athens FC 2-0 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AEK Athens FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 24 as AEK Athens FC welcome PAS Giannina to Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
AEK Athens FC — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, AEK Athens FC have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — AEK Athens FC are significantly better at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAS Giannina stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAS Giannina away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — AEK Athens FC at 1.30 PPG versus PAS Giannina's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for AEK Athens FC, 0 for PAS Giannina and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with AEK Athens FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
AEK Athens FC in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
PAS Giannina in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 50% versus PAS Giannina 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 64% | PAS Giannina 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.20 xG and PAS Giannina 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.139 / defence 1.204 | PAS Giannina attack 0.738 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 0.971 / away 1.116. Data: 22 AEK Athens FC games / 23 PAS Giannina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 41% | Draw 29% | PAS Giannina 30%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | PAS Giannina 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AEK Athens FC as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AEK Athens FC 50% | PAS Giannina 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 41% | Draw 29% | PAS Giannina 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.20 / PAS Giannina 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.139 / def 1.204 | PAS Giannina attack 0.738 / def 1.083 | league avg home 0.971 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.99
PAS Giannina xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina?
AEK Athens FC 2 - 0 PAS Giannina.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina part of?
AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 41% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both AEK Athens FC and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and PAS Giannina?
Record (1 meetings): AEK Athens FC 1W | Draws 0 | PAS Giannina 0W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and PAS Giannina in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. PAS Giannina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from AEK Athens FC's attack rating (1.14) and PAS Giannina's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAS Giannina's attack versus AEK Athens FC's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
41%
2.46
29%
3.45
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.19
0.99
PAS Giannina xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
9%
10.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.1 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.99 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AEK Athens FC's recent record stands at 12W 3D 7L from 22 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAS Giannina, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 7L across 22 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AEK Athens FC on 1.77 PPG, PAS Giannina on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AEK Athens FC have managed 6W 0D 4L from 10 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAS Giannina's away record stands at 3W 3D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 1.18 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; PAS Giannina in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
PAS Giannina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 12W 3D 7L in their last 22 games (1.77 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 9W 6D 7L in their last 22 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or PAS Giannina away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 1.80 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 1.20 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or PAS Giannina been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, PAS Giannina in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: AEK Athens FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 May 2022, when AEK Athens FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AEK Athens FC's record when hosting PAS Giannina specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
AEK Athens FC
0
Draws
1
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and PAS Giannina?
From 8 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 7, PAS Giannina have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2024, when AEK Athens FC 4-2 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and PAS Giannina?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
PAS Giannina see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — AEK Athens FC 50% BTTS, PAS Giannina 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (AEK Athens FC) and 10% (PAS Giannina).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; PAS Giannina in 40%; PAS Giannina in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play PAS Giannina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 20% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of AEK Athens FC's recent games and 10% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AEK Athens FC and PAS Giannina tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, PAS Giannina in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AEK Athens FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over PAS Giannina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat PAS Giannina 2-0 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.20 xG and PAS Giannina 0.99 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. AEK Athens FC beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAS Giannina landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.14 / defence 1.20 against PAS Giannina attack 0.74 / defence 1.08, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 41% | Draw 29% | PAS Giannina 30%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 64%, PAS Giannina 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AEK Athens FC 1.77 PPG, PAS Giannina 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AEK Athens FC win broke the near-deadlock. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.