AEK Athens FC 1-3 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AEK Athens FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to OPAP Arena to face AEK Athens FC in Super League 1, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 March 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
AEK Athens FC's overall Super League 1 record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 games at OPAP Arena this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at OPAP Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.40 — AEK Athens FC are significantly better at OPAP Arena than their overall form suggests.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus away from home this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.40 vs 2.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
AEK Athens FC — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 43% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 54% | Olympiakos Piraeus 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.27 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.489 / defence 0.626 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.315 / defence 0.687. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 0.992. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.489 — their λ of 1.27 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.687 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack strength of 1.315 — the away xG of 0.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. AEK Athens FC's defence rating of 0.626 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 AEK Athens FC games / 51 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 43% | Draw 37% | Olympiakos Piraeus 20%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 2.33 | Draw 2.70 | Olympiakos Piraeus 5.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: AEK Athens FC 20% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: OPAP Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 43% | Draw 37% | Olympiakos Piraeus 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.27 / Olympiakos Piraeus 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.489 / def 0.626 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.315 / def 0.687 | league avg home 1.239 / away 0.992 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at OPAP Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
AEK Athens FC 1 - 3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at OPAP Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 43% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 20% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AEK Athens FC's attack at 1.49x the league average against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.31x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (0.63x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
43%
2.32
37%
2.72
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.08
0.82
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
2.32
43%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
6%
17.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 10.2 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.9 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.82 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, AEK Athens FC have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 35W 10D 16L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 40W 16D 5L from 61 games, 2.23 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.89 PPG for AEK Athens FC against 2.23 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AEK Athens FC have posted 2.07 PPG from 30 outings (20W 2D 8L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 18W 9D 3L from 30 away games — 2.10 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.84 scored and 0.64 conceded. Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking output running into AEK Athens FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 35W 10D 16L in their last 61 games (1.89 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 40W 16D 5L in their last 61 (2.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.07 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.10 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-1 on 24 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AEK Athens FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AEK Athens FC
2
Draws
6
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 2, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when AEK Athens FC 1-1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 37%, Olympiakos Piraeus 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (AEK Athens FC) and 50% (Olympiakos Piraeus). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 13% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of AEK Athens FC's matches and 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's.
Do AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over AEK Athens FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat AEK Athens FC 1-3 at OPAP Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.27 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.82 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 0.82 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.49 / defence 0.63 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.31 / defence 0.69, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 43% | Draw 37% | Olympiakos Piraeus 20%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Olympiakos Piraeus win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 54%, Olympiakos Piraeus 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AEK Athens FC 1.89 PPG, Olympiakos Piraeus 2.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Olympiakos Piraeus win broke the near-deadlock. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.