AEK Athens FC 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as AEK Athens FC take on Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to OPAP Arena to face AEK Athens FC in Super League 1, Championship Round - 8. The match kicks off on Wednesday 3 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
AEK Athens FC's overall Super League 1 record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
AEK Athens FC's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at OPAP Arena this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at OPAP Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Olympiakos Piraeus away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form favours the hosts. AEK Athens FC's 2.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Olympiakos Piraeus's 1.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
AEK Athens FC — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 42% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 54% | Olympiakos Piraeus 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.27 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.376 / defence 0.858 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.381 / defence 0.739. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.000. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.376 — their λ of 1.27 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.739 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack strength of 1.381 — the away xG of 1.19 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 AEK Athens FC games / 52 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 34% | Draw 35% | Olympiakos Piraeus 31%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 2.94 | Draw 2.86 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3.23. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: AEK Athens FC 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 8 | Venue: OPAP Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 34% | Draw 35% | Olympiakos Piraeus 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 54% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.27 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.376 / def 0.858 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.381 / def 0.739 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 3 May 2023 at OPAP Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
AEK Athens FC 0 - 0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at OPAP Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Championship Round - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 34% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 31% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AEK Athens FC's attack at 1.38x the league average against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.38x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.91
35%
2.85
31%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.45
1.19
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
2.91
34%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.28
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
11%
9.50
9%
11.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 1.19 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 69 outings, AEK Athens FC have picked up 1.91 PPG on a 40W 12D 17L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 44W 17D 8L from 69 games, 2.16 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.91 PPG for AEK Athens FC against 2.16 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AEK Athens FC have posted 2.03 PPG from 34 outings (22W 3D 9L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 20W 9D 5L from 34 away games — 2.03 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.88 scored and 0.72 conceded. Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking output running into AEK Athens FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Current Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 40W 12D 17L in their last 69 games (1.91 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 44W 17D 8L in their last 69 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.03 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.03 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-1 on 24 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AEK Athens FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AEK Athens FC
2
Draws
6
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 2, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when AEK Athens FC 1-1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 38%, Olympiakos Piraeus 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (AEK Athens FC) and 53% (Olympiakos Piraeus). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of AEK Athens FC's matches and 53% of Olympiakos Piraeus's.
Do AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at AEK Athens FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at OPAP Arena, Championship Round - 8, as AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.27 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.19 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. AEK Athens FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Olympiakos Piraeus landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.38 / defence 0.86 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.38 / defence 0.74, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 34% | Draw 35% | Olympiakos Piraeus 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 54%, Olympiakos Piraeus 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AEK Athens FC 1.91 PPG, Olympiakos Piraeus 2.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.