AEK Athens FC 1-2 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AEK Athens FC vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AEK Athens FC host OFI at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 20 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
AEK Athens FC — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, AEK Athens FC have gone 5W 0D 1L this season (6 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, OFI have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On current form, AEK Athens FC have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for AEK Athens FC, 0 for OFI and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
AEK Athens FC trading profile (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
OFI trading profile (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 54% versus OFI 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 62% | OFI 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.09 xG and OFI 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.206 / defence 0.985 | OFI attack 0.795 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.073 / away 1.246. Data: 14 AEK Athens FC games / 13 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 38% | Draw 30% | OFI 32%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | OFI 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AEK Athens FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AEK Athens FC 33% | OFI 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis • Kick-off: Monday 20 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 38% | Draw 30% | OFI 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.09 / OFI 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.206 / def 0.985 | OFI attack 0.795 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.073 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.98
OFI xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs OFI kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs OFI kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 20 December 2021 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
AEK Athens FC 1 - 2 OFI.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs OFI part of?
AEK Athens FC vs OFI is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 38% chance of winning, OFI a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both AEK Athens FC and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and OFI?
Record (1 meetings): AEK Athens FC 0W | Draws 1 | OFI 0W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and OFI in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. OFI (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AEK Athens FC's attack rating (1.21) and OFI's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus AEK Athens FC's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
38%
2.64
30%
3.32
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.07
0.98
OFI xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
11%
9.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.98 for OFI, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AEK Athens FC's recent record stands at 8W 3D 2L from 13 games, a 2.08 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 4W 7D 2L across 13 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AEK Athens FC by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OFI heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AEK Athens FC have managed 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OFI's away record stands at 2W 3D 0L across 5 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.15 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; OFI in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and OFI in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 8W 3D 2L in their last 13 games (2.08 PPG), while OFI have gone 4W 7D 2L in their last 13 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or OFI away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.40 PPG; OFI away: 1.80 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, OFI in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AEK Athens FC and OFI runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 21 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
AEK Athens FC go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2022, when AEK Athens FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AEK Athens FC's record when hosting OFI specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
AEK Athens FC
1
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 7, OFI have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2025, when AEK Athens FC 2-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and OFI?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 40%, OFI 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (AEK Athens FC) and 20% (OFI).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; OFI in 60%; OFI in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 40% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of AEK Athens FC's recent games and 20% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AEK Athens FC and OFI tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, OFI in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as OFI defy the odds to beat AEK Athens FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat AEK Athens FC 1-2 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.09 xG and OFI 0.98 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. OFI outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.98 against OFI attack 0.80 / defence 0.84, drawn from 14/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 38% | Draw 30% | OFI 32%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual OFI win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 62%, OFI 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
OFI's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.46. Form was overturned, with OFI winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. OFI (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.