AEK Athens FC 3-0 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AEK Athens FC vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AEK Athens FC host OFI at OPAP Arena in Super League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 January 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AEK Athens FC — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at OPAP Arena, AEK Athens FC have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at OPAP Arena.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, OFI have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, AEK Athens FC have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for AEK Athens FC, 2 for OFI and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with OFI winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
AEK Athens FC trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
OFI trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 38% versus OFI 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 56% | OFI 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 2.19 xG and OFI 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.240 / defence 0.693 | OFI attack 0.673 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.307. AEK Athens FC's defence rating of 0.693 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 AEK Athens FC games / 45 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 74% | Draw 18% | OFI 9%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.35 | Draw 5.56 | OFI 11.11. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (74%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AEK Athens FC as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AEK Athens FC 40% | OFI 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: OPAP Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jan 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 74% | Draw 18% | OFI 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 41% | xG AEK Athens FC 2.19 / OFI 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.240 / def 0.693 | OFI attack 0.673 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.61
OFI xG
41%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs OFI kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs OFI kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 January 2024 at OPAP Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
AEK Athens FC 3 - 0 OFI.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at OPAP Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs OFI part of?
AEK Athens FC vs OFI is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 74% chance of winning, OFI a 9% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both AEK Athens FC and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and OFI?
Record (5 meetings): AEK Athens FC 2W | Draws 1 | OFI 2W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and OFI in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. OFI (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AEK Athens FC's attack rating (1.24) and OFI's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 2.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus AEK Athens FC's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 3-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
74%
1.36
18%
5.61
9%
11.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
3 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.80
0.61
OFI xG
1.36
74%
Home win
5.61
18%
Draw
11.59
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
54%
1.84
11%
8.96
Win to Nil
40%
2.50
1%
103.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.6 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.7 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.61 for OFI, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AEK Athens FC's recent record stands at 36W 11D 5L from 52 games, a 2.29 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 14W 19D 19L across 52 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AEK Athens FC by 1.12 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OFI heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AEK Athens FC have managed 19W 5D 1L from 25 games — 2.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OFI's away record stands at 7W 8D 10L across 25 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.02 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and OFI in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 36W 11D 5L in their last 52 games (2.29 PPG), while OFI have gone 14W 19D 19L in their last 52 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or OFI away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.48 PPG; OFI away: 1.16 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, OFI in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AEK Athens FC and OFI runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 21 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
AEK Athens FC go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2022, when AEK Athens FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AEK Athens FC's record when hosting OFI specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
AEK Athens FC
1
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 7, OFI have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2025, when AEK Athens FC 2-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and OFI?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 32%, OFI 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (AEK Athens FC) and 48% (OFI).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 68% of their matches; OFI in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 44% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of AEK Athens FC's recent games and 48% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AEK Athens FC and OFI tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, OFI in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat OFI 3-0 at OPAP Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 2.19 xG and OFI 0.61 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AEK Athens FC beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.24 / defence 0.69 against OFI attack 0.67 / defence 1.14, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 74% | Draw 18% | OFI 9%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 56%, OFI 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and duly kept one.
OFI's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.