AEK Athens FC 3-0 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos meet at OPAP Arena in Super League 1, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Monday 13 February 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
AEK Athens FC (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC at OPAP Arena this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at OPAP Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. AEK Athens FC's 2.30 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Levadiakos's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for AEK Athens FC, 0 for Levadiakos and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with AEK Athens FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
AEK Athens FC — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
Levadiakos — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 33% versus Levadiakos 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 52% | Levadiakos 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 2.30 xG and Levadiakos 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.603 / defence 0.641 | Levadiakos attack 0.781 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.052. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.603 — their λ of 2.30 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Levadiakos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing AEK Athens FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. AEK Athens FC's defence rating of 0.641 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 AEK Athens FC games / 21 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 75% | Draw 20% | Levadiakos 5%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.33 | Draw 5.00 | Levadiakos 20.00. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (75%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: AEK Athens FC 20% | Levadiakos 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: OPAP Arena • Kick-off: Monday 13 Feb 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 75% | Draw 20% | Levadiakos 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 39% | xG AEK Athens FC 2.30 / Levadiakos 0.53 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.603 / def 0.641 | Levadiakos attack 0.781 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.53
Levadiakos xG
39%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos kicked off at 16:30 on Monday 13 February 2023 at OPAP Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos?
AEK Athens FC 3 - 0 Levadiakos.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at OPAP Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 75% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 5% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos?
Record (1 meetings): AEK Athens FC 1W | Draws 0 | Levadiakos 0W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Levadiakos (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AEK Athens FC's attack at 1.60x the league average against Levadiakos's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 2.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (0.78x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.53.
These ratings are built from 46/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 3-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
75%
1.33
20%
5.02
5%
21.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
3 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.82
0.53
Levadiakos xG
1.33
75%
Home win
5.02
20%
Draw
21.19
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
59%
1.69
10%
9.93
Win to Nil
44%
2.25
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 15.7 | 8.3 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.53 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 21 outings, AEK Athens FC have picked up 2.24 PPG on a 15W 2D 4L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levadiakos's form line: 2W 7D 12L from 21 games, 0.62 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AEK Athens FC are the form team by 1.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Levadiakos.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AEK Athens FC have posted 2.70 PPG from 10 outings (9W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 2.24 PPG overall — AEK Athens FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AEK Athens FC are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 0.57 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 15W 2D 4L in their last 21 games (2.24 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 2W 7D 12L in their last 21 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Levadiakos away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.70 PPG; Levadiakos away: 0.30 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
AEK Athens FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 4-0 on 22 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AEK Athens FC have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
AEK Athens FC
1
Draws
0
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos?
From 6 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 5, Levadiakos have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when AEK Athens FC 4-0 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (AEK Athens FC) and 40% (Levadiakos) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (AEK Athens FC) and 50% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 70% of their matches; Levadiakos in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 40% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of AEK Athens FC's recent games and 50% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Levadiakos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Levadiakos 3-0 at OPAP Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 2.30 xG and Levadiakos 0.53 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.60 / defence 0.64 against Levadiakos attack 0.78 / defence 1.23, drawn from 46/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 75% | Draw 20% | Levadiakos 5%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 52%, Levadiakos 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and duly kept one.
Levadiakos's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 52% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 0.62. Form held, and they took the win. Levadiakos (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.