Werder Bremen 4-1 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Werder Bremen at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Werder Bremen and Union Berlin meet at Weserstadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 December 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Werder Bremen have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Weserstadion, Werder Bremen have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Union Berlin (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Werder Bremen's favour (1.70 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Union Berlin, who have claimed 5 wins from 6 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 1–2 with Union Berlin winning.
It is worth noting that Union Berlin have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Werder Bremen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 58% versus Union Berlin 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 60% | Union Berlin 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.29 xG and Union Berlin 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.875 / defence 1.095 | Union Berlin attack 0.726 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.487. Data: 48 Werder Bremen games / 48 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 34% | Union Berlin 31%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Union Berlin 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Union Berlin lead the H2H ledger, but Werder Bremen carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Werder Bremen at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Werder Bremen 60% | Union Berlin 30%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Weserstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Dec 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 34% | Union Berlin 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Werder Bremen 1.29 / Union Berlin 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.875 / def 1.095 | Union Berlin attack 0.726 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.487 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Union Berlin xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin kick off?
Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 21 December 2024 at Weserstadion.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin?
Werder Bremen 4 - 1 Union Berlin.
Where is Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Weserstadion.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin part of?
Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 36% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Werder Bremen and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Union Berlin?
Record (6 meetings): Werder Bremen 1W | Draws 0 | Union Berlin 5W.
What form are Werder Bremen and Union Berlin in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Union Berlin (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Werder Bremen's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Union Berlin's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.73x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
36%
2.79
34%
2.98
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.47
1.18
Union Berlin xG
2.79
36%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
11%
9.11
8%
11.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.0 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.18 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Werder Bremen have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 17W 13D 18L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin's form line: 13W 11D 24L from 48 games, 1.04 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Werder Bremen against 1.04 for Union Berlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Werder Bremen have posted 1.35 PPG from 23 outings (8W 7D 8L).
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 2W 6D 15L from 23 away games — 0.52 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Werder Bremen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 0.96 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 17W 13D 18L in their last 48 games (1.33 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 13W 11D 24L in their last 48 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or Union Berlin away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.35 PPG; Union Berlin away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Werder Bremen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Werder Bremen won 4-1 on 21 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Werder Bremen have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Werder Bremen
1
Draws
5
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 4, Union Berlin have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Union Berlin 1-4 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Union Berlin see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 61%, Union Berlin 26% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Werder Bremen) and 30% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen have failed to score in 26% of games; Union Berlin in 65%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play Union Berlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Werder Bremen's recent matches and 26% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Werder Bremen's recent games and 30% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Werder Bremen and Union Berlin tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Werder Bremen run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat Union Berlin 4-1 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.29 xG and Union Berlin 1.18 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Werder Bremen beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Union Berlin attack 0.73 / defence 0.88, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 34% | Union Berlin 31%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 60%, Union Berlin 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.33 PPG, Union Berlin 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Werder Bremen win broke the near-deadlock. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Union Berlin (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.