Werder Bremen 2-2 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Werder Bremen host SC Paderborn 07 at Weser-Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Werder Bremen — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Werder Bremen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Werder Bremen have posted 4W 1D 5L at Weser-Stadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Paderborn 07 stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Paderborn 07's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Werder Bremen at 1.20 PPG versus SC Paderborn 07's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Werder Bremen have won 1, SC Paderborn 07 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 4–3 with Werder Bremen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Werder Bremen in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 54% versus SC Paderborn 07 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 56% | SC Paderborn 07 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 2.23 xG and SC Paderborn 07 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 1.069 / defence 1.045 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.606 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.999 / away 1.425. Data: 39 Werder Bremen games / 5 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 67% | Draw 19% | SC Paderborn 07 14%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | SC Paderborn 07 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Werder Bremen (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Werder Bremen at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Werder Bremen 60% | SC Paderborn 07 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Weser-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 67% | Draw 19% | SC Paderborn 07 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 53% | xG Werder Bremen 2.23 / SC Paderborn 07 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 1.069 / def 1.045 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.606 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.999 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
0.90
SC Paderborn 07 xG
53%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Weser-Stadion.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Werder Bremen 2 - 2 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Weser-Stadion.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 67% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (2 meetings): Werder Bremen 1W | Draws 0 | SC Paderborn 07 1W.
What form are Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Werder Bremen's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.23. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
67%
1.48
19%
5.36
14%
7.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.13
0.90
SC Paderborn 07 xG
1.48
67%
Home win
5.36
19%
Draw
7.22
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
41%
2.47
11%
9.31
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
1%
67.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 0.90 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Werder Bremen come into this having played 39 games, going 10W 10D 19L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Werder Bremen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.69 PPG from 39 outings (19W 9D 11L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Werder Bremen's home form reads 7W 4D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.58 points per game from 19 outings (8W 6D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.56 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Early Season
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 10W 10D 19L in their last 39 games (1.03 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 19W 9D 11L in their last 39 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.32 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2021, when SC Paderborn 07 won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Werder Bremen's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Werder Bremen
1
Draws
1
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07?
From 3 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 1, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Werder Bremen 2-2 SC Paderborn 07.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 53%, SC Paderborn 07 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Werder Bremen) and 47% (SC Paderborn 07).
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 in 47%; Werder Bremen have failed to score in 32% of games; SC Paderborn 07 in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play SC Paderborn 07?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Werder Bremen's recent matches and 42% of SC Paderborn 07's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Werder Bremen's recent games and 47% of SC Paderborn 07's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Weser-Stadion, Regular Season - 6, as Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 2.23 xG and SC Paderborn 07 0.90 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 1.07 / defence 1.04 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.61 / defence 1.04, drawn from 39/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 67% | Draw 19% | SC Paderborn 07 14%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 56%, SC Paderborn 07 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.