Werder Bremen 0-2 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Werder Bremen and FSV Mainz 05 meet at wohninvest WESERSTADION in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 October 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Werder Bremen's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Werder Bremen have posted 4W 3D 3L at wohninvest WESERSTADION — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FSV Mainz 05 (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Werder Bremen's 1.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of FSV Mainz 05's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Werder Bremen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, FSV Mainz 05 in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Werder Bremen 1W, FSV Mainz 05 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2021, ended 0–1 with FSV Mainz 05 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Werder Bremen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
FSV Mainz 05 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 67% and FSV Mainz 05 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 67% | FSV Mainz 05 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 2.10 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 1.207 / defence 1.269 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.981 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.384. Data: 9 Werder Bremen games / 43 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 47% | Draw 22% | FSV Mainz 05 32%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.13 | Draw 4.55 | FSV Mainz 05 3.12. Werder Bremen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Werder Bremen as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 70% | FSV Mainz 05 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 47% | Draw 22% | FSV Mainz 05 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG Werder Bremen 2.10 / FSV Mainz 05 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 1.207 / def 1.269 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.981 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.72
FSV Mainz 05 xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05?
Werder Bremen 0 - 2 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 47% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 32% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Werder Bremen and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and FSV Mainz 05?
Record (2 meetings): Werder Bremen 1W | Draws 0 | FSV Mainz 05 1W.
What form are Werder Bremen and FSV Mainz 05 in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Werder Bremen's attack rating (1.21) and FSV Mainz 05's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 2.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FSV Mainz 05's attack (0.98x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
47%
2.15
22%
4.58
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.83
1.72
FSV Mainz 05 xG
2.15
47%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.65
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
12%
8.20
Win to Nil
8%
12.03
4%
25.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.72 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Werder Bremen have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 22W 12D 9L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FSV Mainz 05's form line: 16W 10D 17L from 43 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Werder Bremen are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FSV Mainz 05.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Werder Bremen have posted 1.62 PPG from 21 outings (9W 7D 5L).
On the road, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 6W 2D 13L from 21 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FSV Mainz 05's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Werder Bremen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.37 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 22W 12D 9L in their last 43 games (1.81 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 16W 10D 17L in their last 43 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.62 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Werder Bremen won 4-0 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Werder Bremen have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Werder Bremen
2
Draws
3
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and FSV Mainz 05?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 5, FSV Mainz 05 have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Werder Bremen 0-2 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and FSV Mainz 05?
Werder Bremen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Werder Bremen see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Werder Bremen, 76% for FSV Mainz 05 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Werder Bremen and 71% for FSV Mainz 05. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Werder Bremen's games and 76% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Werder Bremen's matches and 71% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do Werder Bremen and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FSV Mainz 05 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Werder Bremen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 beat Werder Bremen 0-2 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 2.10 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.72 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Werder Bremen fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 1.21 / defence 1.27 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.98 / defence 1.09, drawn from 9/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 47% | Draw 22% | FSV Mainz 05 32%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual FSV Mainz 05 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 67%, FSV Mainz 05 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Werder Bremen arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.35. Form was overturned, with FSV Mainz 05 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.