Werder Bremen 2-0 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Eintracht Frankfurt travel to Weserstadion to take on Werder Bremen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Werder Bremen have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen's home record at Weserstadion: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Eintracht Frankfurt's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Werder Bremen's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Werder Bremen, 3 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Werder Bremen in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 57% and Eintracht Frankfurt 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 64% | Eintracht Frankfurt 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.56 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 1.002 / defence 1.295 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.068 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.457. Data: 61 Werder Bremen games / 61 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 30% | Draw 22% | Eintracht Frankfurt 48%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 3.33 | Draw 4.55 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2.08. Eintracht Frankfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 2.02) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.57 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 80% | Eintracht Frankfurt 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Weserstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 30% | Draw 22% | Eintracht Frankfurt 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Werder Bremen 1.56 / Eintracht Frankfurt 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 1.002 / def 1.295 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.068 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.457 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
2.02
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Weserstadion.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Werder Bremen 2 - 0 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Weserstadion.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 30% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 48% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (7 meetings): Werder Bremen 1W | Draws 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt 3W.
What form are Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Werder Bremen's attack at 1.00x the league average against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 2.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
30%
3.34
22%
4.60
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.57
2.02
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
3.34
30%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
13%
7.50
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
4%
25.09
10%
9.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 2.02 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Werder Bremen's recent record stands at 21W 15D 25L from 61 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 25W 20D 16L across 61 games — 1.56 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Werder Bremen on 1.28 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Werder Bremen have managed 10W 8D 12L from 30 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 10W 9D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.74 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 69%.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 21W 15D 25L in their last 61 games (1.28 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 25W 20D 16L in their last 61 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.27 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Aug 2025, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Werder Bremen's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Werder Bremen
4
Draws
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 2, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Werder Bremen 3-3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Werder Bremen at 63%, Eintracht Frankfurt at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Werder Bremen and 67% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Werder Bremen's games and 67% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Werder Bremen's matches and 67% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Werder Bremen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.56 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 2.02 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 1.00 / defence 1.29 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.07 / defence 1.04, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 30% | Draw 22% | Eintracht Frankfurt 48%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Werder Bremen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 64%, Eintracht Frankfurt 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.28 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Werder Bremen win broke the near-deadlock. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.