VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfL Wolfsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
VOLKSWAGEN ARENA plays host to VfL Wolfsburg versus 1899 Hoffenheim in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 19 February 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
VfL Wolfsburg have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Wolfsburg at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
1899 Hoffenheim (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, 1899 Hoffenheim are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: VfL Wolfsburg 0W, 1899 Hoffenheim 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with 1899 Hoffenheim winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
VfL Wolfsburg half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
1899 Hoffenheim half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Wolfsburg 46% versus 1899 Hoffenheim 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 50% | 1899 Hoffenheim 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.51 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.791 / defence 1.057 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.044 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.773 / away 1.394. VfL Wolfsburg's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.51 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 VfL Wolfsburg games / 56 1899 Hoffenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 35% | Draw 28% | 1899 Hoffenheim 36%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | 1899 Hoffenheim 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1899 Hoffenheim at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1899 Hoffenheim if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfL Wolfsburg 50% | 1899 Hoffenheim 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: VOLKSWAGEN ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 35% | Draw 28% | 1899 Hoffenheim 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.51 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.791 / def 1.057 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.044 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.773 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.54
1899 Hoffenheim xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
VfL Wolfsburg 1 - 2 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 35% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Record (1 meetings): VfL Wolfsburg 0W | Draws 0 | 1899 Hoffenheim 1W.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
VfL Wolfsburg's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against 1899 Hoffenheim's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — 1899 Hoffenheim's attack (1.04x) against VfL Wolfsburg's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
35%
2.84
28%
3.51
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
3.05
1.54
1899 Hoffenheim xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
8%
13.20
8%
12.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.54 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
VfL Wolfsburg's recent record stands at 25W 13D 18L from 56 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1899 Hoffenheim, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 21L across 56 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for VfL Wolfsburg against 1.38 for 1899 Hoffenheim. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, VfL Wolfsburg have managed 14W 6D 8L from 28 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1899 Hoffenheim's away record stands at 6W 9D 13L across 28 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1899 Hoffenheim's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfL Wolfsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.70 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim in 64%.
Defensively: VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 25W 13D 18L in their last 56 games (1.57 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 21W 14D 21L in their last 56 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
VfL Wolfsburg's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 1.71 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 0.96 PPG.
Have VfL Wolfsburg or 1899 Hoffenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, 1899 Hoffenheim in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1899 Hoffenheim — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VfL Wolfsburg
3
Draws
4
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 10 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 1-1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
1899 Hoffenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Wolfsburg 43%, 1899 Hoffenheim 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (VfL Wolfsburg) and 64% (1899 Hoffenheim). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 68% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 64% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1899 Hoffenheim edge out VfL Wolfsburg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1899 Hoffenheim beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.51 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.54 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.79 / defence 1.06 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.04 / defence 1.08, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 35% | Draw 28% | 1899 Hoffenheim 36%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 50%, 1899 Hoffenheim 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.57 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1899 Hoffenheim win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.