VfL Bochum 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Bochum at 74%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vonovia Ruhrstadion plays host to VfL Bochum versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 5 March 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
VfL Bochum (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for VfL Bochum, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Bochum at Vonovia Ruhrstadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — VfL Bochum are significantly better at Vonovia Ruhrstadion than their overall form suggests.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 3.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for VfL Bochum, 1.30 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: VfL Bochum 1W, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with VfL Bochum winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
VfL Bochum goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Bochum 42% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Bochum 38% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Bochum 2.61 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Bochum attack 0.888 / defence 0.864 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.745 / defence 1.668. League average goals — home 1.764 / away 1.354. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.668 — this is suppressing VfL Bochum's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 VfL Bochum games / 24 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Bochum 74% | Draw 16% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 10%. Fair-value odds: VfL Bochum 1.35 | Draw 6.25 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 10.00. The model has a clear lean to VfL Bochum (74%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfL Bochum as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.48 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfL Bochum 40% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Bochum 74% | Draw 16% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 55% | xG VfL Bochum 2.61 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Bochum attack 0.888 / def 0.864 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.745 / def 1.668 | league avg home 1.764 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: VfL Bochum (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.61
VfL Bochum xG
Expected Goals
0.87
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
55%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What was the final score in VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
VfL Bochum 2 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What competition is VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives VfL Bochum a 74% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 10% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making VfL Bochum the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both VfL Bochum and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (1 meetings): VfL Bochum 1W | Draws 0 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W.
What form are VfL Bochum and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
VfL Bochum (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from VfL Bochum's attack rating (0.89) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.67), the model arrives at 2.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (0.74x) against VfL Bochum's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 3-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Bochum Win
74%
1.35
16%
6.08
10%
10.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
3 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.61
VfL Bochum xG
Total xG
3.48
0.87
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.35
74%
Home win
6.08
16%
Draw
10.46
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
7%
13.64
Win to Nil
31%
3.23
1%
142.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are VfL Bochum and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 2.61 expected goals for VfL Bochum and 0.87 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 24 outings, VfL Bochum have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 8W 5D 11L record — D-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for VfL Bochum is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 3W 5D 16L from 24 games, 0.58 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, VfL Bochum are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, VfL Bochum have posted 1.75 PPG from 12 outings (6W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — VfL Bochum are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 1D 11L from 12 away games — 0.08 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfL Bochum come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfL Bochum are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 0.92 scored and 2.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 67%.
Last 24 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Bochum
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Bochum and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
VfL Bochum have gone 8W 5D 11L in their last 24 games (1.21 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 5D 16L in their last 24 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Bochum at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
VfL Bochum's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Bochum at home: 1.75 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
VfL Bochum go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfL Bochum won 0-3 on 29 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfL Bochum have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
VfL Bochum
0
Draws
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 4 meetings on record, VfL Bochum have won 4, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did VfL Bochum and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when VfL Bochum 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between VfL Bochum and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
VfL Bochum have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfL Bochum see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Bochum 42%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for VfL Bochum and 100% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Bochum keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Bochum home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Bochum play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of VfL Bochum's games and 75% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of VfL Bochum's matches and 100% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do VfL Bochum and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
VfL Bochum have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VfL Bochum edge out SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Bochum beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 2.61 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.87 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 0.89 / defence 0.86 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.74 / defence 1.67, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 74% | Draw 16% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 10%, with VfL Bochum to win its most likely call at 74%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 38%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Bochum's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VfL Bochum arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.