VfL Bochum 1-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfL Bochum at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vonovia Ruhrstadion plays host to VfL Bochum versus FC Augsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
VfL Bochum have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfL Bochum, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Bochum's home record at Vonovia Ruhrstadion: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in VfL Bochum's favour (1.50 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — VfL Bochum lead 3W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
VfL Bochum goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfL Bochum 55% and FC Augsburg 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Bochum 60% | FC Augsburg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Bochum 1.73 xG and FC Augsburg 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Bochum attack 0.983 / defence 0.911 | FC Augsburg attack 0.960 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.256. Data: 53 VfL Bochum games / 53 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Bochum 51% | Draw 27% | FC Augsburg 23%. Fair-value odds: VfL Bochum 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | FC Augsburg 4.35. VfL Bochum hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfL Bochum as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfL Bochum if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VfL Bochum 70% | FC Augsburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Bochum 51% | Draw 27% | FC Augsburg 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG VfL Bochum 1.73 / FC Augsburg 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Bochum attack 0.983 / def 0.911 | FC Augsburg attack 0.960 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: VfL Bochum (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
VfL Bochum xG
Expected Goals
1.10
FC Augsburg xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg kick off?
VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What was the final score in VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg?
VfL Bochum 1 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What competition is VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg part of?
VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives VfL Bochum a 51% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making VfL Bochum the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both VfL Bochum and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and FC Augsburg?
Record (5 meetings): VfL Bochum 3W | Draws 1 | FC Augsburg 1W.
What form are VfL Bochum and FC Augsburg in?
VfL Bochum (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates VfL Bochum's attack at 0.98x the league average against FC Augsburg's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.96x) against VfL Bochum's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Bochum Win
51%
1.97
27%
3.77
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
VfL Bochum xG
Total xG
2.83
1.10
FC Augsburg xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
4%
24.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.2 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are VfL Bochum and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for VfL Bochum and 1.10 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, VfL Bochum have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 14W 13D 26L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for VfL Bochum is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Augsburg's form line: 14W 13D 26L from 53 games, 1.04 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for VfL Bochum against 1.04 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, VfL Bochum have posted 1.54 PPG from 26 outings (11W 7D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — VfL Bochum are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 5W 5D 16L from 26 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfL Bochum come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfL Bochum are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.32 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg in 66%.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Bochum
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Bochum and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
VfL Bochum have gone 14W 13D 26L in their last 53 games (1.04 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 14W 13D 26L in their last 53 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Bochum at home or FC Augsburg away?
VfL Bochum's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Bochum at home: 1.54 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Augsburg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfL Bochum have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
VfL Bochum
2
Draws
3
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and FC Augsburg?
From 8 meetings on record, VfL Bochum have won 3, FC Augsburg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfL Bochum and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when VfL Bochum 1-2 FC Augsburg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for VfL Bochum, 69% for FC Augsburg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for VfL Bochum and 65% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Bochum home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Bochum play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of VfL Bochum's games and 69% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of VfL Bochum's matches and 65% of FC Augsburg's.
Do VfL Bochum and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
VfL Bochum have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfL Bochum and FC Augsburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 20, as VfL Bochum and FC Augsburg drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.73 xG and FC Augsburg 1.10 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 0.98 / defence 0.91 against FC Augsburg attack 0.96 / defence 1.02, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 51% | Draw 27% | FC Augsburg 23%, with VfL Bochum to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 60%, FC Augsburg 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Bochum's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Bochum 1.04 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.