VfB Stuttgart 4-0 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees VfL Wolfsburg travel to MHPArena to take on VfB Stuttgart. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 March 2026, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at MHPArena this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfL Wolfsburg stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.60. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Wolfsburg's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
VfB Stuttgart carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for VfB Stuttgart, 3 for VfL Wolfsburg and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 3–0 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 63% and VfL Wolfsburg 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 72% | VfL Wolfsburg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.93 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.929 / defence 0.931 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.920 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.700 / away 1.377. VfL Wolfsburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing VfB Stuttgart's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 VfB Stuttgart games / 57 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 54% | Draw 23% | VfL Wolfsburg 23%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | VfL Wolfsburg 4.35. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 50% | VfL Wolfsburg 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Mar 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 54% | Draw 23% | VfL Wolfsburg 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.93 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.929 / def 0.931 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.920 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.700 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.18
VfL Wolfsburg xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 1 March 2026 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
VfB Stuttgart 4 - 0 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 54% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (9 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 4W | Draws 2 | VfL Wolfsburg 3W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (0.93) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
54%
1.84
23%
4.35
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.11
1.18
VfL Wolfsburg xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
14%
6.91
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
3%
30.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.18 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 27W 12D 18L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfL Wolfsburg's form line: 16W 15D 26L from 57 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, VfB Stuttgart are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfL Wolfsburg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1.75 PPG from 28 outings (15W 4D 9L).
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 11W 5D 12L from 28 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.56 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; VfL Wolfsburg in 72%.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 27W 12D 18L in their last 57 games (1.63 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 16W 15D 26L in their last 57 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.75 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
VfB Stuttgart have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Mar 2026, when VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VfB Stuttgart
2
Draws
3
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 5, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 4-0 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 61%, VfL Wolfsburg 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for VfB Stuttgart and 61% for VfL Wolfsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 64% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 61% of VfL Wolfsburg's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 4-0 hammering of VfL Wolfsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat VfL Wolfsburg 4-0 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.93 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.18 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VfL Wolfsburg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.93 / defence 0.93 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.92 / defence 1.22, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 54% | Draw 23% | VfL Wolfsburg 23%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 72%, VfL Wolfsburg 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.