VfB Stuttgart 1-2 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as VfB Stuttgart face VfL Wolfsburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
VfL Wolfsburg travel to MHPArena to take on VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 February 2025 at 14:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, VfB Stuttgart have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, VfL Wolfsburg stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
VfL Wolfsburg's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (VfB Stuttgart) versus 1.50 (VfL Wolfsburg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from VfB Stuttgart's last 10 home games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for VfB Stuttgart, 2 for VfL Wolfsburg and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2024, ended VfB Stuttgart 2–2 VfL Wolfsburg — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 60% and VfL Wolfsburg 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 73% | VfL Wolfsburg 62%). Note also that VfL Wolfsburg surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while VfB Stuttgart recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.61 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.124 / defence 1.008 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.215 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.368. VfL Wolfsburg have an above-average attack rating of 1.215, which lifts their away xG to 1.68. Data: built from VfB Stuttgart's last 55 games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 55.
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 36% | Draw 25% | VfL Wolfsburg 39%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.76 | Draw 4.00 | VfL Wolfsburg 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.61 / 1.68) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfL Wolfsburg at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (VfB Stuttgart's last 10 home games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VfB Stuttgart 70% (last 10 home games) | VfL Wolfsburg 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 22 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 February 2025 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 36% | Draw 25% | VfL Wolfsburg 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.61 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.124 / def 1.008 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.215 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.68
VfL Wolfsburg xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg FAQs
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 15 February 2025 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
VfB Stuttgart 1 - 2 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 22) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 36% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (1.12) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from VfB Stuttgart's last 55 games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
36%
2.76
25%
4.00
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.29
1.68
VfL Wolfsburg xG
2.76
36%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
19%
5.34
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
7%
14.74
8%
12.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.1 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.68 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.96 PPG on a 33W 9D 13L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
VfL Wolfsburg's form line: 18W 13D 24L from 55 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-D.
Put side by side, VfB Stuttgart are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfL Wolfsburg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 2.19 PPG from their last 27 home games (18W 5D 4L).
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 9W 5D 13L from their last 27 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 2.13 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.53 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; VfL Wolfsburg in 67%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
VfB Stuttgart (Home) vs VfL Wolfsburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg Form FAQs
What form are VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 33W 9D 13L in their last 55 games (1.96 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 18W 13D 24L in their last 55 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 2.19 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 1 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
VfB Stuttgart have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Mar 2026, when VfB Stuttgart won VfB Stuttgart 4-0 VfL Wolfsburg.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VfB Stuttgart
2
Draws
3
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, VfB Stuttgart have won 5, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2026: VfB Stuttgart 4-0 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 67%, VfL Wolfsburg 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for VfB Stuttgart and 56% for VfL Wolfsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 59% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 56% of VfL Wolfsburg's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 93% of VfB Stuttgart's recent matches and 82% of VfL Wolfsburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VfL Wolfsburg edge out VfB Stuttgart 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat VfB Stuttgart 1-2 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.61 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.68 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.12 / defence 1.01 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.22 / defence 0.85, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 36% | Draw 25% | VfL Wolfsburg 39%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 73%, VfL Wolfsburg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with VfL Wolfsburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.59 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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