VfB Stuttgart 2-2 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Hertha BSC travel to Mercedes-Benz-Arena to take on VfB Stuttgart. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 December 2021, 14:30 UTC.

Form Guide

VfB Stuttgart — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 4W 1D 5L at Mercedes-Benz-Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Hertha BSC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Hertha BSC have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — VfB Stuttgart at 1.00 PPG versus Hertha BSC's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. VfB Stuttgart register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Hertha BSC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, VfB Stuttgart have won 1, Hertha BSC 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

VfB Stuttgart trading profile (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Hertha BSC trading profile (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 70% and Hertha BSC 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 60% | Hertha BSC 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.07 xG and Hertha BSC 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.985 / defence 1.063 | Hertha BSC attack 0.827 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.785 / away 1.282. Data: 47 VfB Stuttgart games / 47 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 57% | Draw 25% | Hertha BSC 18%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Hertha BSC 5.56. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 80% | Hertha BSC 60% BTTS from recent games.

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