VfB Stuttgart 5-1 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs FC Schalke 04 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mercedes-Benz-Arena plays host to VfB Stuttgart versus FC Schalke 04 in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 27 February 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
VfB Stuttgart have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1W 6D 3L at Mercedes-Benz-Arena — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Schalke 04's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FC Schalke 04 have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in VfB Stuttgart's favour (1.10 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — VfB Stuttgart lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
FC Schalke 04 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfB Stuttgart 73% versus FC Schalke 04 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 59% | FC Schalke 04 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.81 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.961 / defence 1.145 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.608 / defence 1.616. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.435. FC Schalke 04 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.616 — this is suppressing VfB Stuttgart's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 VfB Stuttgart games / 22 FC Schalke 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 55% | Draw 25% | FC Schalke 04 20%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | FC Schalke 04 5.00. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 80% | FC Schalke 04 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 55% | Draw 25% | FC Schalke 04 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.81 / FC Schalke 04 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.961 / def 1.145 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.608 / def 1.616 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.00
FC Schalke 04 xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 27 February 2021 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs FC Schalke 04?
VfB Stuttgart 5 - 1 FC Schalke 04.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs FC Schalke 04 is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 55% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and FC Schalke 04 will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and FC Schalke 04?
Record (1 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 0W | Draws 1 | FC Schalke 04 0W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and FC Schalke 04 in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates VfB Stuttgart's attack at 0.96x the league average against FC Schalke 04's defence at 1.62x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Schalke 04's attack (0.61x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
55%
1.81
25%
4.00
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.81
1.00
FC Schalke 04 xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
16%
6.11
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
3%
31.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.00 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs FC Schalke 04?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 7W 8D 7L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Schalke 04's form line: 1W 6D 15L from 22 games, 0.41 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, VfB Stuttgart are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Schalke 04.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 0.90 PPG from 10 outings (1W 6D 3L). That actually lags their 1.32 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, FC Schalke 04 have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 0.68 scored and 2.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
FC Schalke 04
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 7W 8D 7L in their last 22 games (1.32 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 1W 6D 15L in their last 22 (0.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 0.90 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 5-1 on 27 Feb 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Schalke 04 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
VfB Stuttgart
2
Draws
1
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and FC Schalke 04?
From 4 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 1, FC Schalke 04 have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when FC Schalke 04 2-1 VfB Stuttgart.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for VfB Stuttgart, 50% for FC Schalke 04 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for VfB Stuttgart and 80% for FC Schalke 04. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Schalke 04 in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play FC Schalke 04?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 50% of FC Schalke 04's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs FC Schalke 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 80% of FC Schalke 04's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and FC Schalke 04 tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Schalke 04 in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 5-1 hammering of FC Schalke 04.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat FC Schalke 04 5-1 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.81 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.00 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.61 / defence 1.62, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 55% | Draw 25% | FC Schalke 04 20%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 59%, FC Schalke 04 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.41. Form held, and they took the win. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 3.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.