VfB Stuttgart 3-3 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Heidenheim encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Heidenheim meet at Stuttgart Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 31 March 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
VfB Stuttgart have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stuttgart Arena — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1. FC Heidenheim (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. VfB Stuttgart's 2.20 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of 1. FC Heidenheim's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — VfB Stuttgart register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, 1. FC Heidenheim in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — VfB Stuttgart lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 0–2 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 65% and 1. FC Heidenheim 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 68% | 1. FC Heidenheim 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.35 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.374 / defence 0.805 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.828 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.402. VfB Stuttgart carry an above-average attack strength of 1.374 — their λ of 2.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 60 VfB Stuttgart games / 26 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 67% | Draw 21% | 1. FC Heidenheim 12%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.49 | Draw 4.76 | 1. FC Heidenheim 8.33. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 70% | 1. FC Heidenheim 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stuttgart Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 67% | Draw 21% | 1. FC Heidenheim 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 57% | xG VfB Stuttgart 2.35 / 1. FC Heidenheim 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.374 / def 0.805 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.828 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
0.94
1. FC Heidenheim xG
57%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Stuttgart Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
VfB Stuttgart 3 - 3 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Stuttgart Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 67% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Record (1 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 0W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Heidenheim 1W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates VfB Stuttgart's attack at 1.37x the league average against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 2.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Heidenheim's attack (0.83x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 60/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
67%
1.49
21%
4.76
12%
8.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.29
0.94
1. FC Heidenheim xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
8.56
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
10%
10.51
Win to Nil
26%
3.79
1%
89.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 0.94 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
VfB Stuttgart come into this having played 60 games, going 27W 12D 21L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Heidenheim sit at 1.60 PPG from 60 outings (26W 18D 16L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 1.60 for 1. FC Heidenheim. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
VfB Stuttgart's home form reads 16W 7D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Heidenheim have taken 1.23 points per game from 30 outings (9W 10D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.70 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 27W 12D 21L in their last 60 games (1.55 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 26W 18D 16L in their last 60 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.83 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 1.23 PPG.
Have VfB Stuttgart or 1. FC Heidenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfB Stuttgart have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, 1. FC Heidenheim in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Heidenheim — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
VfB Stuttgart
2
Draws
2
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 6 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when 1. FC Heidenheim 3-3 VfB Stuttgart.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 63%, 1. FC Heidenheim 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (VfB Stuttgart) and 50% (1. FC Heidenheim). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 57% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 50% of 1. FC Heidenheim's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Heidenheim share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Heidenheim finished level at 3-3 at Stuttgart Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 2.35 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 0.94 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.37 / defence 0.81 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.83 / defence 1.07, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 67% | Draw 21% | 1. FC Heidenheim 12%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 68%, 1. FC Heidenheim 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.55 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.