VfB Stuttgart 4-0 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Augsburg at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg meet at MHPArena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 May 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 games at MHPArena this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Augsburg have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
FC Augsburg's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
FC Augsburg arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Across 7 previous meetings, VfB Stuttgart are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jan 2025, ended 1–0 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both VfB Stuttgart and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
VfB Stuttgart — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfB Stuttgart 61% versus FC Augsburg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 71% | FC Augsburg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.34 xG and FC Augsburg 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.016 / defence 1.127 | FC Augsburg attack 0.846 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.492. Data: 66 VfB Stuttgart games / 66 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 34% | Draw 28% | FC Augsburg 38%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | FC Augsburg 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
VfB Stuttgart dominate the H2H record, yet FC Augsburg are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 70% | FC Augsburg 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 34% | Draw 28% | FC Augsburg 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.34 / FC Augsburg 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.016 / def 1.127 | FC Augsburg attack 0.846 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.492 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.42
FC Augsburg xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
VfB Stuttgart 4 - 0 FC Augsburg.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 34% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg?
Record (7 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 5W | Draws 1 | FC Augsburg 1W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
VfB Stuttgart's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.85x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
34%
2.92
28%
3.58
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.77
1.42
FC Augsburg xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
8%
12.13
10%
10.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.42 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
VfB Stuttgart's recent record stands at 35W 12D 19L from 66 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five.
FC Augsburg, meanwhile, have gone 21W 19D 26L across 66 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours VfB Stuttgart by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Augsburg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, VfB Stuttgart have managed 19W 5D 9L from 33 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Augsburg's away record stands at 9W 8D 16L across 33 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.27 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
FC Augsburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 35W 12D 19L in their last 66 games (1.77 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 21W 19D 26L in their last 66 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or FC Augsburg away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.88 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
VfB Stuttgart have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 on 11 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
VfB Stuttgart
1
Draws
1
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 8, FC Augsburg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-5 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 67%, FC Augsburg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for VfB Stuttgart and 58% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 54% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 58% of FC Augsburg's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 4-0 hammering of FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat FC Augsburg 4-0 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.34 xG and FC Augsburg 1.42 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Augsburg landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.02 / defence 1.13 against FC Augsburg attack 0.85 / defence 0.87, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 34% | Draw 28% | FC Augsburg 38%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual VfB Stuttgart win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 71%, FC Augsburg 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.45 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.