VfB Stuttgart 3-1 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 7 as VfB Stuttgart welcome 1899 Hoffenheim to Mercedes-Benz-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, VfB Stuttgart have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1899 Hoffenheim — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. 1899 Hoffenheim have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1899 Hoffenheim's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour 1899 Hoffenheim — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. VfB Stuttgart register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
1899 Hoffenheim trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 68% and 1899 Hoffenheim 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 60% | 1899 Hoffenheim 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.61 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.122 / defence 1.349 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.119 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.747 / away 1.172. Data: 40 VfB Stuttgart games / 40 1899 Hoffenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 33% | Draw 28% | 1899 Hoffenheim 39%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | 1899 Hoffenheim 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1899 Hoffenheim as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1899 Hoffenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 70% | 1899 Hoffenheim 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 33% | Draw 28% | 1899 Hoffenheim 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 69% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.61 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.122 / def 1.349 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.119 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.747 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.77
1899 Hoffenheim xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
VfB Stuttgart 3 - 1 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 33% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and 1899 Hoffenheim?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates VfB Stuttgart's attack at 1.12x the league average against 1899 Hoffenheim's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
33%
3.06
28%
3.56
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.38
1.77
1899 Hoffenheim xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.24
Clean Sheet
17%
5.86
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
6%
17.91
8%
12.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.7 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.77 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 13W 11D 16L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1899 Hoffenheim's form line: 13W 12D 15L from 40 games, 1.27 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfB Stuttgart on 1.25 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1.20 PPG from 20 outings (6W 6D 8L).
On the road, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 4W 8D 8L from 20 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.58 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; 1899 Hoffenheim in 68%.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
1899 Hoffenheim
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 13W 11D 16L in their last 40 games (1.25 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 13W 12D 15L in their last 40 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.20 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2024, when VfB Stuttgart won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting 1899 Hoffenheim specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
VfB Stuttgart
6
Draws
2
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 3-3 VfB Stuttgart.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfB Stuttgart at 75%, 1899 Hoffenheim at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for VfB Stuttgart and 60% for 1899 Hoffenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 70% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 60% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over 1899 Hoffenheim.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat 1899 Hoffenheim 3-1 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.61 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.77 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.12 / defence 1.35 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.12 / defence 0.82, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 33% | Draw 28% | 1899 Hoffenheim 39%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual VfB Stuttgart win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 60%, 1899 Hoffenheim 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.25 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.