Union Berlin 0-2 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 57%, yet the head-to-head data favours FC Augsburg — this Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union Berlin and FC Augsburg meet at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga (matchday 17). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 15 January 2025 at 19:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Union Berlin have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Union Berlin's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Union Berlin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
FC Augsburg (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 0W 2D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Union Berlin's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Union Berlin's games and 70% of FC Augsburg's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to FC Augsburg, who have 3 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Apr 2024, ended Union Berlin 0–2 FC Augsburg — a FC Augsburg win.
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 42% versus FC Augsburg 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 44% | FC Augsburg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.80 xG and FC Augsburg 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.778 / defence 0.891 | FC Augsburg attack 0.772 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.768 / away 1.418. Union Berlin's attack rating of 0.778 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.80. FC Augsburg's defence rating of 1.308 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Union Berlin's projected output up. FC Augsburg's attack rating of 0.772 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Union Berlin's last 50 games and FC Augsburg's last 50.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 57% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 20%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 1.77 | Draw 4.30 | FC Augsburg 4.96. The model has a clear lean to Union Berlin (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Union Berlin's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Union Berlin 80% (last 10 home games) | FC Augsburg 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 17 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 January 2025 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 57% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Union Berlin 1.80 / FC Augsburg 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.778 / def 0.891 | FC Augsburg attack 0.772 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.768 / away 1.418 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
0.98
FC Augsburg xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg FAQs
What time does Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Wednesday 15 January 2025 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Union Berlin 0 - 2 FC Augsburg.
Where is Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg part of?
Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 17) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 57% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Union Berlin and FC Augsburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.78) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.77x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from Union Berlin's last 50 games and FC Augsburg's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
57%
1.77
23%
4.30
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.77
0.98
FC Augsburg xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
3%
29.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Union Berlin and 0.98 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union Berlin come into this having played 50 games, going 13W 11D 26L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.10 PPG from 50 outings (14W 13D 23L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Union Berlin against 1.10 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Union Berlin's home form reads 10W 5D 9L across their last 24 home games, a 1.46 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 0.71 points per game from their last 24 away games (4W 5D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union Berlin are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.34 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg in 64%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
Union Berlin (Home) vs FC Augsburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union Berlin
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg Form FAQs
What form are Union Berlin and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 13W 11D 26L in their last 50 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 14W 13D 23L in their last 50 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or FC Augsburg away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.46 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Union Berlin and FC Augsburg, the earliest from February 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won Union Berlin 4-0 FC Augsburg on 16 May 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Union Berlin
4
Draws
4
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and FC Augsburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union Berlin have won 2, FC Augsburg have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and FC Augsburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: FC Augsburg 1-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 54%, FC Augsburg 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Union Berlin and 71% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin have failed to score in 29% of games; FC Augsburg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union Berlin and FC Augsburg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Union Berlin's games and 62% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Union Berlin and FC Augsburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Union Berlin's matches and 71% of FC Augsburg's.
Do Union Berlin and FC Augsburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 92% of FC Augsburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Union Berlin 0-2 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.80 xG and FC Augsburg 0.98 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.8 short of their projected output. FC Augsburg outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.78 / defence 0.89 against FC Augsburg attack 0.77 / defence 1.31, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 57% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 20%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a FC Augsburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 44%, FC Augsburg 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.00 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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