Union Berlin 0-3 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Eintracht Frankfurt travel to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to take on Union Berlin in Bundesliga (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 November 2023 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Union Berlin — last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Union Berlin have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Union Berlin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Eintracht Frankfurt are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Union Berlin have won 2, Eintracht Frankfurt 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Mar 2023, ended Union Berlin 2–0 Eintracht Frankfurt — a Union Berlin win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 49% versus Eintracht Frankfurt 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 54% | Eintracht Frankfurt 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.34 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.744 / defence 1.077 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.900 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.982 / away 1.539. Union Berlin's attack rating of 0.744 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.34. Data: built from Union Berlin's last 43 games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 43.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 34% | Draw 26% | Eintracht Frankfurt 41%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.98 | Draw 3.86 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Eintracht Frankfurt at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Union Berlin's last 10 home games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Union Berlin 30% (last 10 home games) | Eintracht Frankfurt 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 10 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 34% | Draw 26% | Eintracht Frankfurt 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Union Berlin 1.34 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.744 / def 1.077 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.900 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.982 / away 1.539 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt FAQs
What time does Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Union Berlin 0 - 3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 10) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 34% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union Berlin's attack at 0.74x the league average against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Union Berlin's last 43 games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
34%
2.98
26%
3.86
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.83
1.49
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
8%
13.25
11%
9.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.49 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 20W 8D 15L from 43 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 16W 16D 11L across 43 games — 1.49 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Berlin on 1.58 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 12W 6D 3L from their last 21 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 5W 8D 8L across their last 21 away games, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.63 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 65%.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
Union Berlin (Home) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union Berlin
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt Form FAQs
What form are Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 20W 8D 15L in their last 43 games (1.58 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 16W 16D 11L in their last 43 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Union Berlin's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 2.00 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or Eintracht Frankfurt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Eintracht Frankfurt in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Nov 2023, when Eintracht Frankfurt won Union Berlin 0-3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Union Berlin's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Union Berlin
4
Draws
2
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union Berlin have won 4, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Union Berlin 3-3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 48%, Eintracht Frankfurt 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Union Berlin) and 62% (Eintracht Frankfurt). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Union Berlin have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Union Berlin's games and 76% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Union Berlin's matches and 62% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 81% of Eintracht Frankfurt's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Eintracht Frankfurt run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat Union Berlin 0-3 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.34 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.49 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Eintracht Frankfurt outscored their 1.49 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.74 / defence 1.08 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.90 / defence 0.91, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 34% | Draw 26% | Eintracht Frankfurt 41%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 54%, Eintracht Frankfurt 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.58 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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