Union Berlin 3-1 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 16 as Union Berlin welcome 1899 Hoffenheim to Stadion An der Alten Försterei. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 January 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Union Berlin have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Stadion An der Alten Försterei this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Union Berlin are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Union Berlin register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Union Berlin, 0 for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 2–1 with Union Berlin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Union Berlin trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
1899 Hoffenheim trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 57% versus 1899 Hoffenheim 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 53% | 1899 Hoffenheim 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.82 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 1.038 / defence 0.876 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.063 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.862 / away 1.292. Data: 49 Union Berlin games / 49 1899 Hoffenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 52% | Draw 23% | 1899 Hoffenheim 25%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | 1899 Hoffenheim 4.00. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 70% | 1899 Hoffenheim 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Jan 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 52% | Draw 23% | 1899 Hoffenheim 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Union Berlin 1.82 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 1.038 / def 0.876 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.063 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.862 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.20
1899 Hoffenheim xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 21 January 2023 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Union Berlin 3 - 1 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 52% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Record (2 meetings): Union Berlin 1W | Draws 1 | 1899 Hoffenheim 0W.
What form are Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union Berlin's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against 1899 Hoffenheim's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
52%
1.94
23%
4.29
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.02
1.20
1899 Hoffenheim xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
16%
6.17
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
4%
24.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.7 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.20 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union Berlin come into this having played 49 games, going 24W 12D 13L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1899 Hoffenheim sit at 1.31 PPG from 49 outings (18W 10D 21L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Berlin on 1.71 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Union Berlin's home form reads 15W 7D 2L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, 1899 Hoffenheim have taken 1.08 points per game from 24 outings (7W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union Berlin are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.63 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 24W 12D 13L in their last 49 games (1.71 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 18W 10D 21L in their last 49 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
Union Berlin's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 2.17 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: 1899 Hoffenheim have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Feb 2025, when Union Berlin won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Berlin's record when hosting 1899 Hoffenheim specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Union Berlin
1
Draws
4
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 5, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 3-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 58%, 1899 Hoffenheim 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Union Berlin) and 71% (1899 Hoffenheim). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; 1899 Hoffenheim in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Union Berlin's games and 54% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Union Berlin's matches and 71% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do Union Berlin and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over 1899 Hoffenheim.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat 1899 Hoffenheim 3-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.82 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.20 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Union Berlin beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 1.04 / defence 0.88 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.06 / defence 0.94, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 52% | Draw 23% | 1899 Hoffenheim 25%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 53%, 1899 Hoffenheim 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.71 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.